- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a free agent after the 2025 season.
- Guerrero reportedly turned down a deal of around $340 million.
- Ken Rosenthal reports the Jays need to offer over $500 million to extend Guerrero.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is set to become a free agent at the end of the 2025 season.
There were rumours Guerrero could be traded away ahead of the 2024 trade deadline, and the Toronto Blue Jays have failed to agree a contract extension with their four-time All-Star.
At the BetMGM sportsbook, the Blue Jays odds to win the World Series opened at +6000. They have lengthened to +8000 after a disappointing offseason to date.
Toronto has clearly been willing to spend over the last two winters but has failed to land any of the big names in free agency.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Contract Extension Details
Guerrero is in his final year of salary arbitration. Spotrac projects a $28.8 million salary for the 2025 regular season.
Ahead of the 2024 season, the Jays filed a salary $1.85 million lower than the number Guerrero provided. A hearing ultimately sided with the All-Star first baseman, who received a $19.9 million salary in 2024.
Despite the Jays finishing bottom of the AL East, he was more than worth that salary. After posting a 165 wRC+ with 5.5 fWAR in 2024, Guerrero’s baseball odds of winning American League MVP are +1600. Only six players have a shorter price as of Jan. 7.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Contract Offer from Blue Jays
According to Abriendo Sports, the Blue Jays offered Guerrero over $340 million.
“What they offered me is not even close to what I’m looking for,” Guerrero said.
According to the latest Sportsnet report, Guerrero is open to signing an extension with the Blue Jays. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Jays will need to offer between $500 million and $600 million to keep Guerrero.
Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765 million deal with the New York Mets reset expectations for players of Guerrero’s calibre in free agency.
Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Negotiations
Guerrero has set a deadline of the first full day of spring training for his contract negotiations.
This gives the Jays until Feb. 22 to secure an extension, or Guerrero will become a free agent after the 2025 season.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Contract Predictions
Spotrac projects Guerrero will sign a 12-year, $427 million contract as a free agent. This figure is calculated using comparable contracts signed in recent years and adjusting for Guerrero’s production when pitted against those players.
Soto’s deal with the Mets has inflated the potential market for Guerrero considerably. Prior to Soto’s contract, the three most similar deals (Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, and Rafael Devers) averaged under $350 million.
Like Soto, Guerrero is set to become a free agent at 26. A contract of at least a decade is almost guaranteed, given that Soto got a 15-year deal at 26, and Harper signed a 13-year agreement with the Philadelphia Phillies as a 26-year-old.