- The Blue Jays are 18-22 and 8.5 games off the AL East lead.
- Toronto has not won any of its last six series.
- Baseball Reference gives the Jays a 0.3% chance of winning the World Series.
The Toronto Blue Jays have seen numerous changes in their baseball odds through the first 40 games of the campaign. Without a win over their last six series, the Jays are below .500 and bottom of the AL East.
In an ultra-strong division, Toronto still has the best record of any fifth-placed team. That is little consolation at the moment, though, particularly with their current 18-22 record. They are six games back of the final wild-card spot in the American League.
Toronto Blue Jays World Series Odds
The Blue Jays are out to +4000 in the latest World Series odds. Their price has varied throughout the season, but since opening at +1600, this is the longest their odds have been all season. Baseball Reference currently gives them just a 0.3% chance of winning the 2024 Fall Classic.
With a sizeable deficit in the division and failing to win six series in a row, the Blue Jays are even +200 to make the playoffs.
Toronto Blue Jays Win Total Odds
The Jays are currently on pace for 73 wins. Their preseason win total of 87.5 seems a long way off at the moment, even though they have had 89 or more wins in three consecutive seasons.
The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays are challenging opponents for the Jays this week, but they face an easier schedule after these six games. Their next 13 games are against the Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, and Pittsburgh Pirates.
Toronto Blue Jays Odds To Win the AL East
The Blue Jays are out at +1800 to win the AL East. Fangraphs gives Toronto just a 2.1% chance of winning the division. They are already 8.5 games off the lead.
The Orioles and New York Yankees are both on pace for over 104 wins. Despite low preseason expectations, the Boston Red Sox have maintained an above-.500 record. With a 15-25 Pythagorean win-loss record, the Blue Jays are a real longshot to win their first division title since 2015.
Toronto Blue Jays Odds To Win the AL Pennant
Toronto is now +1800 to win the AL pennant. Baseball Reference gives the Jays a 15.1% chance of reaching the postseason. Toronto is already falling off the wild-card pace in the American League and needs to get their season on track sooner rather than later if they are to make the playoffs, let alone win the pennant.
Toronto’s offence has climbed to 16th in xwOBA generated this season, and their pitching staff has moved up to 29th after ranking dead-last for much of the season. While these are steps in the right direction, they are still a long, long way off the standards set by the Orioles and Yankees.
Several other AL teams look better placed to go on a run, too.
Toronto Blue Jays Prop Bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still has the shortest price for MVP of any Blue Jay. He’s now out to +10000, though, with just four homers and a .754 OPS.
Guerrero has posted the best hard-hit rate of his career, however, and his walk rate is the best it’s been since 2021. His underlying metrics are still very strong, suggesting that his production should improve in the coming months. I think there’s some value at such a long price in the latest online sports betting markets.
Kevin Gausman and José Berríos are both +3500 to win the AL Cy Young. Neither looks like a good option right now. Berríos’ contact metrics are poor, and he allowed eight earned runs in his last start.
Gausman’s ERA is 4.95. His strikeout rate has plummeted, and his xERA is the worst of his career.