Cy Young Odds: 2024 AL & NL Betting Lines

MLB odds on the Cy Young races have moved markedly since opening day. All it takes is a poor start or two for a player’s odds to lengthen. Others can see their Cy Young chances improve drastically if they string together a few strong outings. 

Brandon Woodruff, Kodai Senga, Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, and Max Scherzer are just a few of the big names who are nowhere to be seen. Injuries have eliminated several elite pitchers from contention. Numerous pitchers are having great seasons, so there’s plenty to consider when evaluating the sports betting odds on the AL and NL Cy Young awards.

Cy Young Odds: 2024 AL & NL Betting Lines

Odds To Win AL Cy Young

Pablo López was the big mover in the AL Cy Young race over the last week, jumping from +1300 to +700. After allowing 11 earned runs over his last two starts, Logan Gilbert drifted from +1000 to +2000.

Following a dominant start to the season, Reid Detmers has fallen out of contention. The Los Angeles Angels starter now has a 5.19 ERA on the season, having conceded four or more earned runs in five straight starts.

OꓘKKKKꓘKKꓘK PABLO! pic.twitter.com/wBcXLhFTtM

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) May 9, 2024

Tarik Skubal has the best xERA of any starter. He deserves to be the favourite right now, with his MLB-best 2.03 FIP. Behind the Detroit Tigers southpaw, Garrett Crochet still has superb expected metrics across the board, and his ERA is down to 4.63. I still like the Chicago White Sox starter as a longshot at +10000. 

Twins duo López and Joe Ryan are the next two AL starters in the xERA charts. Both have suffered a bit of batted-ball misfortune to date, but they have been dominant at times. López has struck out 18 over his last two starts, while Ryan has upped his sweeper usage with great results.

I find it hard to look beyond Skubal at the moment with how well he has pitched over his last 23 starts dating back to last season. Corbin Burnes remains a strong contender, though, and I would keep an eye on López and Ryan.

Odds To Win NL Cy Young

Zack Wheeler maintains his place atop NL Cy Young betting in the latest baseball odds. Wheeler and Tyler Glasnow remain the front-runners, but they are now accompanied by Shota Imanaga, who is +600 from +1400 just a week ago. 

Ranger Suárez and Dylan Cease have also seen their odds shorten considerably, with the pair leapfrogging Freddy Peralta, Sonny Gray, and Zac Gallen. 

Imanaga leads the big leagues with a 0.96 ERA. Suárez isn’t far behind at 1.50. Cease is allowing just 4.3 hits per nine innings, which is the best mark in the majors. There are some extraordinary numbers being posted by NL starters this season, with Glasnow, Suárez, Imanaga, Cease, and Wheeler all among the top 22 pitchers in xERA. 

Suárez and Imanaga are the surprising candidates. Suárez has combined elite command with the ability to generate soft contact while getting more chases and throwing more first-pitch strikes. This looks like a sustainable formula.

Imanaga has been keeping hitters off balance with his four-seamer and splitter combination. Neither of these lefties are going to have sub-two ERAs by the end of the season, but their underlying metrics are very impressive. I don’t love the value on either right now – with a 2.77 xERA and elite strikeout numbers, Cease is the value pick outside the top two.