- The Maple Leafs will likely play the Florida Panthers in the first round.
- The New York Rangers offer the most favourable matchup.
- The Maple Leafs will want to avoid the Boston Bruins.
With five games remaining in the regular season, the Toronto Maple Leafs still have three possible first-round playoff opponents: the Boston Bruins, Florida Panthers, or New York Rangers.
The first two might cause Maple Leafs fans recurring and suppressed nightmares.
Toronto Maple Leafs 2024 Playoff Picture
Although the least likely first-round opponent, the New York Rangers represent the best matchup for the Toronto Maple Leafs, whose Stanley Cup odds currently sit at +1600.
Considering the slim chances of that occurring, the Panthers are the lesser of the other two evils.
Most Likely Opponent: Florida Panthers
Monday’s victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins increased the likelihood of a Panthers-Maple Leafs first-round matchup.
The Maple Leafs are 2-1 against the Panthers with one head-to-head matchup remaining on Tuesday, April 16. That is the Maple Leafs’ penultimate encounter of the season. Toronto beat Florida twice at home, 2-1 in a shootout on Nov. 28 and 6-4 on April 1.
The Panthers won the first matchup of the season 3-1 in Florida on Oct. 19. While they’ve gotten the better of the Panthers thus far in the 2023-24 campaign, the opposite is true of the 2022-23 playoffs.
Ryan Reaves is not phased by Matthew Tkachuk 😅 pic.twitter.com/EiXF0XxInx
— Gino Hard (@GinoHard_) April 2, 2024
Florida ousted the Maple Leafs in the second round, winning the series in just five games. Although the series was closer than the five games indicated, as each game other than the opener was decided by a goal, including two that needed overtime.
The Panthers haven’t been at their best recently, which gives the Maple Leafs more hope. Less than a month ago, Florida was the favourite to win the Stanley Cup.
A string of nine losses in 12 games has the Panthers tied as second favourites with the Colorado Avalanche, according to the latest hockey odds.
Team to Avoid: Boston Bruins
A sordid history and inability to overcome the Bruins make them the team the Maple Leafs will want to avoid most.
Outscored 15-7, the Maple Leafs are 0-2-2 against the Bruins this season. The first two games were highly competitive, decided by a shootout and a 3-on-3 overtime period.
Toronto played well in both games in the first half of the season, showcasing an ability to stick with their archnemesis until the bitter end. Who knows what would have transpired in playoff overtime sessions, where there is no arbitrary shootout or gunslinging 3-on-3.
Unfortunately, the four regular-season defeats are a mere microcosm of the Maple Leafs’ seemingly incurable affliction where the Bruins are concerned.
The Maple Leafs corps, led by Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and Morgan Rielly, suffered devastating first-round playoff losses to the Bruins in 2018 and 2019, both in a decisive seventh game in Boston.
The 2012-13 defeat to the Bruins, also in Game 7, preceded the current crop of Maple Leafs superstars. However, that gut-wrenching loss only exacerbates the perceived ominous Bruins omen.
Luckily, the Maple Leafs will most likely avoid the Bruins in the first round if they don’t let the Tampa Bay Lightning overtake them. The Bruins are five points ahead of the Panthers with four games remaining, all but securing their place atop the Atlantic Division.
Most Favourable Matchup: New York Rangers
For this matchup to occur, Boston must overtake the Rangers for first overall in the Eastern Conference, and the Maple Leafs would have to finish fourth place in the Atlantic Division. That is highly unlikely, considering Toronto’s six-point lead on Tampa Bay with five games remaining.
Although they sit atop the NHL standings, the New York Rangers probably represent the best-case scenario for the Maple Leafs.
Toronto is 2-1 against New York, outsourcing them 13-11. There would also be a blank slate for this head-to-head, devoid of recent historic hang-ups.
Then again, playing a team with the league’s fourth-best record since Jan. 1 and among the five best Stanley Cup contenders doesn’t sound all that appealing, either.
