- Connor McDavid’s MVP odds have fallen from +550 to +1100 in the last few days.
- McDavid is behind Nikita Kucherov (+450) and Nathan MacKinnon (-500).
- McDavid suffered a lower-body injury April 6 and is day-to-day.
Connor McDavid’s quest for a fourth Hart Trophy took a Francis Ngannou-like uppercut in the last week, with his hockey odds to win MVP falling from +550 to +1100.
McDavid was kept off the score sheet in the Oilers’ 5-0 road loss to the Dallas Stars on April 3 but followed that goose egg with four points in his last two games.
Unfortunately for the Oilers, McDavid suffered a lower-body injury in the 4-2 win over the Calgary Flames on Saturday, casting an Alberta-size shadow over the remainder of his season.
With only 10 days before the playoffs commence, expect the Oilers to bubble wrap their primary hope of winning the Stanley Cup, taking no chances on McDavid’s health. The injury isn’t severe, but unsurprisingly, everybody within the Oilers’ ranks remains tight-lipped about his status.
If he misses any playoff time, which shouldn’t be the case, expect the Edmonton Oilers Stanley Cup odds to take a substantial hit.
2024 Edmonton Oilers Connor McDavid MVP Odds
McDavid drifted farther behind Nikita Kucherov (+450) and Nathan MacKinnon (-500) even before he suffered the lower-body injury.
His +1100 Hart Trophy odds imply an 8.33% probability, almost half of the 15.38% it was at last week.
MacKinnon’s -500 Hart Trophy odds imply an 83.33% probability, while Kucherov’s +450 come with an implied probability of 18.18%.
Connor McDavid’s Hart Trophy Case
In most other seasons, McDavid would have already sewn up the Hart Trophy. That’s not the case in 2023-24, with Kucherov and MacKinnon enjoying career years, which is saying something considering their seemingly perpetual high-end productivity.
With news of his injury setback, he’ll most likely stay where he is, third on the favourites oddsboard and in many statistical categories. Even if it’s a minor injury, which appears to be the case, the Oilers won’t risk him in comparatively meaningless games, especially with their place as the Pacific Division’s second-best team all but secured.
McDavid is third in points (130), third in plus/minus among the favourites (+34), third in even-strength points (85), third in power-play points (44), second in points per game (1.76), first in assists (99), and first in primary assists (61).
Connor McDavid chasing down Nathan MacKinnon last night 💨
The current state of hockey is INCREDIBLE 🔥pic.twitter.com/PKGNt8uSRC
— Gino Hard (@GinoHard_) April 6, 2024
He’s all but guaranteed to hit the 100-assists plateau, even if he only plays one or two more games. That would place him in an exclusive club consisting of three all-time greats: Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and Bobby Orr.
McDavid has enjoyed an extraordinary season despite lagging behind the other two phenoms.
However, his point production at home has far outstripped his road return. McDavid has 81 points in 36 home games, a 2.25 points-per-game rate. That’s marginally better than MacKinnon’s 87 in 39 contests, a 2.23 points-per-game clip.
MacKinnon has at least a point in 38 of 39 home games, rendering McDavid’s dominance at Rogers Place even more astonishing. His 2.25 points-per-game return is despite tallying just six points in his first five home games.
Where McDavid Has Fallen Short in the Hart Trophy Race
McDavid’s .42 goals per game is the third lowest of his career. He scored fewer goals per game in his 2015-16 rookie season and the subsequent campaign, in which he averaged .36 and .37 goals, respectively.
Here’s a look at his goal production through the first nine years of his career:
| Season | Goals | Games | Goals Per Game |
| 2015-16 | 16 | 45 | 0.36 |
| 2016-17 | 30 | 82 | 0.37 |
| 2017-18 | 41 | 82 | 0.5 |
| 2018-19 | 41 | 78 | 0.53 |
| 2019-20 | 34 | 64 | 0.53 |
| 2020-21 | 33 | 56 | 0.59 |
| 2021-22 | 44 | 80 | 0.55 |
| 2022-23 | 64 | 82 | 0.78 |
| 2023-24 | 31 | 74 | 0.42 |
His decreased goal production is linked to fewer game-winning goals. He has five winners, dwarfed by MacKinnon’s nine.
His road productivity isn’t where he’d like it to be, either. McDavid has 49 points in 38 road games, a 1.29 points-per-game clip that ranks fifth. Kucherov leads that category, scoring 75 points in 40 road outings, a 1.88 points-per-game return.
2024 NHL MVP Odds: Who Are the Favourites to Win the Hart Trophy?
| Rank | Player | Team | Odds |
| 1 | Nathan MacKinnon | Avalanche | -500 |
| 2 | Nikita Kucherov | Lightning | +450 |
| 3 | Connor McDavid | Oilers | +1100 |
| 4 | Auston Matthews | Maple Leafs | +2500 |
| 5 | Sidney Crosby | Penguins | +17500 |
MacKinnon’s Hart Trophy odds have moved from -115 on March 12 to -500 on April 10. His MVP odds shortened substantially in the last seven days, from -357 to -500.
It appears Kucherov is the only player who can prevent MacKinnon from picking up his first Hart Trophy.
Is McDavid the Best Player in the NHL?
While technically subjective, the answer is an unequivocal yes. However, the likelihood of him receiving the 2023-24 Hart Trophy is decreasing almost weekly.
His importance to the Oilers is undeniable. Just look at how many points McDavid gets when Edmonton wins. He’s won the Hart Trophy twice in the last three seasons and three times overall. Another MVP award will tie Eddie Shore with the third most all-time.
Who Has Won the Most Hart Trophies?
Wayne Gretzky has the most Hart Trophies, with nine, eight of which came in a row from 1980 to 87.
Gordie Howe has six, Eddie Shore won four, and six players are tied with three in McDavid, Alexander Ovechkin, Lemieux, Bobby Clarke, Orr, and Howie Morenz.