France vs. Germany Odds & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Basketball

France (+1400) took down Canada in the quarterfinals round 82-73, as they have the third-best basketball odds of winning a gold medal.

Germany (+700) took care of business against Greece, winning 76-63.

Let’s take a look at the odds and predictions for this matchup.

France vs. Germany Odds

• France Spread: +4.5
• Germany Spread: -4.5
• France Moneyline: +155
• Germany Moneyline: -190
• Total: 158.5

France vs. Germany Prediction

I predict that Germany will win this game and cover the spread.

Franz Wagner led Germany with 18 points in the win over Greece. Dennis Schröder added 13 points and eight assists. 

Franz Wagner was held to 1-of-6 shooting from 3-point land, but he’s still capable of getting hot from there at any moment. Even if his 3-point shot isn’t falling, he has the ability to slash to the rim or beat his defenders with a wide array of footwork in the paint.

Schröder’s play translates very well to FIBA play, given his lightning-quick speed, which helps him get out on the break and beat defenders off the dribble on drives to the rim. He also isn’t afraid to let it fly from deep, no matter how far behind the 3-point line he is.

DENNIS SCHRODER FROM THE PARKING LOT 🤯

📺 E! and Peacock | #Paris2024

pic.twitter.com/IcMxd4ksyK

— NBA (@NBA) August 6, 2024

Additionally, Schröder’s ability to squeeze passes through tight angles to set his teammates up for shots in their preferred spots helps maximize each player’s talent.

Schröder will likely look to get Johannes Voigtmann and Johannes Thiemann going, as both bigs have great cutting and finishing abilities. Expect Moe Wagner to get some touches inside as well.

After a slow start against Greece, Germany’s defence tightened up on the perimeters, threw double teams toward Giannis Antetokounmpo, and stepped up to force 11 turnovers in the second half.

Guerschon Yabusele led France with 22 points on 6-of-9 shooting and five rebounds in the win over Canada. Isaïa Cordinier added 20 points, including 4-of-5 shooting from downtown.

Evan Fournier chipped in 15 points, including three 3-pointers. Mathias Lessort contributed 13 points and five rebounds.

Victor Wembanyama scored seven points on 2-of-10 shooting but contributed significantly in other areas with 12 rebounds, five assists, three steals, and one block. He made up for his poor shooting performance with excellent defence, using active hands and effectively closing gaps on shooters within his vicinity.

Rudy Gobert saw just three minutes of action, as France opted to play smaller to better match up against Canada.

In turn, Yabusele and Lessort posed problems for Canada with their size, agility, and physicality, both drawing a ton of fouls, accounting for 23 of France’s 42 free-throw attempts.

Lessort, in particular, defended exceptionally well on the perimeter, staying in front of his man to prevent drives and providing airtight defence near the rim. His efforts helped shore up some of the weaknesses his four-time Defensive Player of the Year teammate has against smaller opponents.

France may have to shy away from the Gobert and Wembanyama tandem, as Germany proved they can throw five 3-point shooters at a time to draw both bigs out of the paint, which opened up driving and passing lanes for Germany to feast on. Wemby is a capable defender in space, but he may have trouble staying in front of Schröder and Franz Wagner.

All of this considered, I don’t see France getting to the free-throw line 42 times again, and I expect Germany’s size to keep France’s bigs in check similar to their last matchup, which is why Germany covering is my best online sportsbook bet to make.