France vs. Canada Odds & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Basketball

Canada (+900) finished the group stage a perfect 3-0 after defeating Spain 88-85, heading into the semifinals with the second-best basketball odds of winning a gold medal.

France (+3300) went 2-1 in the group stage, falling to Germany 85-71.

Let’s take a look at the odds and predictions for this matchup.

France vs. Canada Odds

• France Spread: +7.5
• Canada Spread: -7.5
• France Moneyline: +240
• Canada Moneyline: -300
• Total: 153.5

France vs. Canada Prediction

I predict that Canada will defeat France and cover the spread.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 20 points on 5-of-11 shooting and 9-of-13 from the free-throw line in Canada’s win over Spain.

Andrew Nembhard scored 18 points on 8-of-10 shooting off the bench. RJ Barrett added 16 points on 6-of-10 shooting. Dillon Brooks provided 13 points on 5-of-10 shooting.

Canada secures the win over Spain… improving to 3-0 in Group A play! 🇨🇦

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 20 PTS (5-11 FGM)
Andrew Nembhard: 18 PTS (8-10 FGM)
RJ Barrett: 16 PTS (6-10 FGM)#Paris2024 pic.twitter.com/nSNmXrUd1X

— NBA (@NBA) August 2, 2024

Victor Wembanyama had 14 points on 5-of-11 shooting and 12 rebounds in France’s loss to Germany.

France is a team with a ton of size, which matches up very well against a smaller Canadian team. However, it is also very exploitable, and Canada has the personnel in place to expose some of their weakest links.

The Canadians can throw a lineup with five 3-point shooters at a time, which will pull Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert out of the paint and create driving lanes and easy opportunities near the rim.

Wemby and The Stifle Tower will still protect the paint like the Defensive Player of the Year candidates they are, which will take away some of Gilgeous-Alexander and Barrett’s effectiveness at the rim.

However, Gilgeous-Alexander still has a ton of tricks in his bag, with the ability to break down defenders off the dribble, maneuver off of screens, and pick his spots in the midrange, which is why I still think he’ll be able to put up a decent amount of points in this one.

Barrett’s effectiveness could be slightly compromised, but Barrett has proven capable enough to knock down the open 3-pointer or swing to his open teammate if he recognizes a clogged lane. That should bode well for Brooks, who’ll almost certainly be on the receiving end of a lot of those passes. 

I expect SGA and Barrett to feast when Wembanyama and Gobert are sitting, but in the event SGA and/or Barrett are off rhythm, Canada would likely need Jamal Murray and Nembhard to pick up a significant amount of the slack.

Murray struggled in group-stage play, averaging just 5.7 points per game in the three games played.

However, his presence still attracts multiple defenders his way when he’s behind the arc so that alone creates passing lanes for his teammates, especially big men, to put up points in the paint. This game does present a golden opportunity for Murray to have his Olympic moment scoring the ball though.

Team Canada will still have their hands full trying to stop Wembanyama and Gobert, but the big-man duo can only do so much by themselves, especially since France doesn’t have a good enough true point guard to help set them up.

All things considered, I think the spread is fairly low, so that’s why Canada covering is my best online sportsbook bet to make.