- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Wild
- Wild vs. Lightning Total (Over/Under): 6 goals
- TV Channel: TNT | HBOM | tru
The Minnesota Wild (40-19) visit Benchmark International Arena to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (43-21) on Mar. 24 in Tampa, FL. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Wild vs. Lightning Over/Under is 6 total goals.
Wild vs. Lightning Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Wild | +1.5 -160 | 6 -102 | +145 |
| Lightning | -1.5 +135 | 6 -118 | -180 |
Wild vs Lightning Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 79.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Wild vs Lightning Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lightning will cover the spread with 66.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Wild Best Bets & Trends
- The Minnesota Wild have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+12.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Minnesota Wild have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 away games (+10.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Minnesota Wild have hit the 1P Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Minnesota Wild have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Wild have covered the Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 away games (+7.90 Units / 20% ROI)
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+8.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+5.95 Units / 20% ROI)
Wild Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Wild are 36-35 against the spread this NHL season (+5.8 Units / 5.58% ROI).
- Wild are 40-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units /-1.79% ROI
- Wild are 37-31 when betting the Over for +2.5 Units / 3.13% ROI
- Wild are 31-37 when betting the Under for -8.25 Units /-10.73% ROI
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 35-34 against the spread this NHL season (+12.8 Units /15.25% ROI).
- Lightning are 43-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 2.97% ROI
- Lightning are 35-30 when betting the Over for +2.4 Units / 3.16% ROI
- Lightning are 30-35 when betting the Under for -8.25 Units / -10.83% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Lightning vs Wild
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | +135 |
| Kirill Kaprizov (Min) | +155 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | +170 |
| Brandon Hagel (TB) | +195 |
| Matt Boldy (Min) | +195 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | +210 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Lightning vs Wild
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Gage Goncalves (TB) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko (MIN) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Bobby Brink (MIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 1.5 -120 | 1.5 -110 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Lightning vs Wild
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Tarasenko (MIN) | 1.5 -190 | 1.5 +140 |
| Bobby Brink (MIN) | 1.5 +125 | 1.5 -175 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 2.5 +140 | 2.5 -190 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -125 |
| Anthony Cirelli (TB) | 1.5 -160 | 1.5 +115 |
Wild: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Wild are 39-30 (.565) this season — tied for 6th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Wild were undefeated (28-0) when leading after the second period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .852
The Wild are 83-67 (.553) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 7th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Wild were 21-12 (.636) when allowing less than 30 shots on goal last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .533
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Wild
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 129-90 (.589) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 42-25 (.627) this season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 88-58 (.603) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Wild Offensive Stats & Trends
The Wild have 0.1 rush chances per game while shorthanded this season — tied for lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Wild have scored on 8% of second chance opportunities while leading since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Wild have scored 5 power play goals in overtime since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
The Wild have scored 5 power play goals in overtime since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for most among NHL Teams
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have 2.5 rush chances per game in the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning have scored on 30% of second chance opportunities on the power play since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 18%
The Lightning primary assisted on 11 goals while shorthanded last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Lightning averaged 0.6 high danger chances per game while shorthanded last season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
Wild Defensive Stats & Trends
The Wild have allowed 0.2 high danger chances per game while their opponent is shorthanded since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Wild have allowed 0.2 rush chances per game against the power play this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Wild allowed opponents to score on 7% of rush chances last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11%
The Wild allowed opponents to score on 3% of rush chances in the first period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning had a .667 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .832
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning have allowed 9.5 high danger chances per game in 5v5 situations this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 12.0
The Lightning have allowed 4.6 high danger chances per game in the second period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 6.0
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