Which Canadian Team Is Most Likely to Win the Stanley Cup?

Canada’s NHL title drought is set to continue after the Edmonton Oilers fell to the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final for the second consecutive year.

Canadian teams are now 0-8 in the championship round since 1994 when the Vancouver Canucks lost to Mark Messier’s New York Rangers in seven games.

The Montreal Canadiens remain the last team from north of the border to lift the greatest trophy in sports, having defeated Wayne Gretzky’s Los Angeles Kings in 1993.

As we look ahead to the 2025-26 NHL season, I’ll assess the latest NHL odds to see which Canadian team is most likely to win the Stanley Cup.

Which Canadian Team Is Most Likely to Win the Stanley Cup?

Five Canadian teams — the Edmonton Oilers, Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets, Ottawa Senators, and Montreal Canadiens — reached the postseason in 2025, and three advanced to Round 2.

However, the Oilers were the only Canadian representative in the NHL’s final four for the second straight year, and they ultimately came up short in a Stanley Cup rematch against the Panthers.

Given Edmonton has two of the league’s top players, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and has won the West in back-to-back campaigns, it’s no surprise that the Oilers are widely considered the most likely Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup.

Edmonton Oilers +650 Championship Odds

Edmonton enters the offseason as the betting favourites to win the Stanley Cup at the BetMGM sportsbook, which I think is a step too far since the Panthers (+750) are coming off back-to-back titles.

However, Florida could be set for some roster turnover with Aaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand, and Sam Bennett set to hit unrestricted free agency. Meanwhile, Edmonton has most of its core under contract and should wrap up a deal with restricted free agent defenceman Evan Bouchard.

This offseason will be crucial for the Oilers, as McDavid is entering the final year of his contract and is eligible for a contract extension starting July 1. The three-time NHL MVP has said winning is his top priority, so general manager Stan Bowman must rework this roster to extend the team’s championship window and ensure Edmonton’s superstar sticks around.

Toronto Maple Leafs +2000 Championship Odds

The Toronto Maple Leafs were one of the most popular hockey bets to win the Stanley Cup last season, but I wouldn’t expect that to be the case in 2026.

After winning their first Atlantic Division title, the Leafs lost to the Panthers in the second round of the playoffs, marking the ninth straight season that Toronto failed to reach the conference finals.

This latest setback is likely to bring about significant change this offseason, as Mitch Marner and John Tavares are unrestricted free agents. Early reports have hinted that Marner, who led the team with 102 points during the regular season, is almost certain to leave.

General manager Brad Treliving’s roster decisions will significantly affect how these odds continue to shift before the season starts in October.

Winnipeg Jets +2200 Championship Odds

Winnipeg won the Presidents’ Trophy last season, leading the NHL with 56 wins and 116 points. However, the Jets barely escaped the first round before falling to the Dallas Stars in six games.

NHL MVP Connor Hellebuyck struggled again in the postseason, and I wouldn’t count on him besting the regular-season career highs he set in wins (47), GAA (2.01), SV% (.925), and shutouts (8).

Nikolaj Ehlers is an unrestricted free agent, and if he leaves, the Jets are likely to regress next season.

Ottawa Senators +3300 Championship Odds

The Senators reached the postseason for the first time since 2017 but went one-and-done, falling in six games to the Maple Leafs in the Battle of Ontario.

Still, that experience will be a positive one for a talented young roster, highlighted by Tim Stutzle (23), Jake Sanderson (22), and Brady Tkachuk (25).

If Ottawa can add a top-six forward and some defensive help in free agency, I would consider backing the Sens as a Stanley Cup dark horse.

Vancouver Canucks +5000 Championship Odds

The Canucks were one of the league’s biggest disappointments last season, as dysfunction in the locker room led to the team missing the playoffs a year after winning the Pacific Division.

J.T. Miller was sent to New York at the trade deadline, and there are murmurs about star defenceman Quinn Hughes wanting to play with his brother in New Jersey. 

Right now, I can’t trust this franchise.

Montreal Canadiens +8000 Championship Odds

The Canadiens were one of the league’s best teams following the 4 Nations Face-Off, and their late-season push earned them the East’s second wild-card spot.

A first-round exit to the Washington Capitals wasn’t a surprise, but Montreal will be better off for the experience. Still, this youthful roster needs a few more years of development to be a true Cup contender.

Calgary Flames +9000 Championship Odds

Calgary was in the Western Conference playoff race until the final week of the regular season but ultimately missed out for a third straight campaign.

The Flames have sufficient cap space to make meaningful additions that could aid a potential postseason return. Still, a Stanley Cup run from the top-heavy Western Conference feels like a stretch.

What Are the Chances of a Canadian Team Winning the Stanley Cup?