Senators vs. Maple Leafs Predictions, Odds, & Best Bets: Game 6

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ struggles in potential series-clinching games continued on Tuesday night, as the Ottawa Senators silenced the Scotiabank Arena crowd with a 4-0 victory in Game 5.

Ottawa netminder Linus Ullmark stopped all 29 shots he faced to earn his first career playoff shutout, and Tim Stutzle enjoyed a three-point night to help the Sens extend the series.

As the Battle of Ontario prepares to shift back to Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday night, I’ll examine the latest hockey odds for Game 6 and the series before digging into my Senators vs. Maple Leafs best bets.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Odds: Game 6

• Senators spread: -1.5
• Leafs spread: +1.5
• Total: 5.5

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Series Winner Odds

The Maple Leafs remain the favourites to win this series at the BetMGM online sportsbook, but their odds lengthened from -1400 to -350 as a result of the Game 5 setback. That number gives Toronto an implied probability of 77.8% to advance in a series it previously led 3-0.

Meanwhile, the Senators’ odds shortened from +850 to +280, implying a 26.3% chance of completing the comeback.

Senators series winner odds: +280

Maple Leafs series winner odds: -350

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Predictions & Best Bets for Game 6

After failing to close out the series at home in Game 5, the pressure is ramping up on the Toronto Maple Leafs heading back to Ottawa for Game 6. 

The Senators have taken back the momentum in this series, and the Canadian Tire Centre crowd will be revved up on Thursday night by the prospect of forcing a deciding Game 7. While that would be a fitting culmination to a feisty series, I’m backing the Maple Leafs (-102) to win Game 6.

I’ve made that mistake in the last two games of this series, so maybe I should have learned my lesson by now, but Craig Berube’s squad didn’t do much wrong in Game 5. It just ran into a brick wall in Linus Ullmark, who wasn’t on his game early in the series.

Toronto created 3.07 expected goals to Ottawa’s 2.65 on Tuesday night, per MoneyPuck, and the Senators’ figure accounts for significant boosts they got from a pair of empty-net goals late in the third period. The site projects that the Leafs would have won Game 5 (and clinched) 74.7% of the time if it were played 1000 times with average goaltending on both sides.

Given the strength of the performance, I’m surprised that Toronto’s NHL odds to win the Stanley Cup and its series odds fell so far, despite its 1-13 record in its previous 14 potential series-clinching games.

I’m also taking the Maple Leafs over 2.5 goals (-135), as this team total prop hit in the first four games of the series. Ullmark was terrific on Tuesday night, but repeating that feat will be difficult against an offence that has scored at least three goals in 15 of 18 road games since the NHL’s February break.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Series Schedule

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Playoff History

The Senators and Maple Leafs have previously met four times in the playoffs, with Toronto advancing on each occasion.