- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Senators
- Senators vs. Lightning Total (Over/Under): 6 goals
- TV Channel: SPOT | TSN5 | TVA
The Ottawa Senators (38-24) visit Benchmark International Arena to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (44-21) on Mar. 28 in Tampa, FL. The puck drop is scheduled for 1:00 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Senators vs. Lightning Over/Under is 6 total goals.
Senators vs. Lightning Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
Senators vs Lightning Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 67.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Senators vs Lightning Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lightning will cover the spread with 55.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Senators Best Bets & Trends
- The Ottawa Senators have covered the 2P Puck Line in 10 of their last 12 away games (+10.15 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have covered the Puck Line in 10 of their last 15 away games (+9.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have covered the 1P Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 away games (+8.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 away games (+7.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have hit the 2P Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+9.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 3P Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+7.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Senators Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Senators are 33-39 against the spread this NHL season (-0.3 Units / -0.32% ROI).
- Senators are 38-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.85 Units /-3.83% ROI
- Senators are 38-33 when betting the Over for +0.95 Units / 1.17% ROI
- Senators are 33-38 when betting the Under for -7.7 Units /-9.89% ROI
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 36-35 against the spread this NHL season (+13.2 Units /15.33% ROI).
- Lightning are 44-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 1.21% ROI
- Lightning are 37-30 when betting the Over for +4.4 Units / 5.64% ROI
- Lightning are 30-37 when betting the Under for -10.65 Units / -13.55% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Lightning vs Senators
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | +140 |
| Brady Tkachuk (Ott) | +180 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | +200 |
| Brandon Hagel (TB) | +200 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | +210 |
| Tim Stuetzle (OTT) | +210 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Lightning vs Senators
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Gage Goncalves (TB) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Tyler Kleven (OTT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 1.5 -105 | 1.5 -125 |
| Shane Pinto (OTT) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Lightning vs Senators
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point (TB) | 1.5 -165 | 1.5 +125 |
| Tyler Kleven (OTT) | 1.5 -105 | 1.5 -130 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +130 |
| Shane Pinto (OTT) | 1.5 -165 | 1.5 +125 |
| Anthony Cirelli (TB) | 1.5 -118 | 1.5 -115 |
Senators: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Senators are 13-24 (.351) when allowing 14 or more high danger chances this season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .470
The Senators were 16-9 (.640) when tied after the first period last season — 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Senators were 4-23 (.148) when trailing after the first period last season — 6th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .285
The Senators were 7-10 (.412) when tied after the second period last season — 9th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Senators
The Lightning are 43-26 (.623) this season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 129-90 (.589) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 31-18 (.633) when allowing 35 or more shots on goal since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .470
Senators Offensive Stats & Trends
The Senators have 21 cycle chances in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Senators had 0.3 points per game while shorthanded last season — tied for 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.2
The Senators have 41 inner slot shots in 4v4 situations since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among NHL Teams
The Senators have 38 cycle chances in 4v4 situations since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have 2.5 rush chances per game in the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning had 2.7 rush chances per game in the first period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning primary assisted on 11 goals while shorthanded last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Lightning averaged 0.13 expected goals per game while shorthanded last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.08
Senators Defensive Stats & Trends
The Senators have allowed opponents to score on 25% of second chance opportunities this season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 15%
The Senators have a .798 slot save percentage this season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .829
The Senators have allowed opponents to score on 23% of second chance opportunities since the start of the 2024-25 season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 16%
The Senators have allowed 0.0 goals per game while their opponent is shorthanded since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.1
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning had a .800 save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .893
The Lightning have allowed 14.6 high danger chances per game this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17.2
The Lightning had a .667 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .832
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
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