The Buffalo Sabres are in the playoffs for the first time since 2011, but they won’t be satisfied unless they win the Stanley Cup.
That’s the level of expectation for Lindy Ruff and his team, who enter the postseason with the fourth-best points percentage (0.667) and seventh-shortest Stanley Cup odds.
Like the Sabres, little was expected of their first-round opponent, the Boston Bruins, before the season started.
The Bruins, and more to the point, Jeremy Swayman, quickly proved naysayers wrong. Can they upend the Sabres and prematurely end the season’s feel-good story?
Sabres vs. Bruins Odds, Spread, Over/Under
Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins Prediction: NHL Playoff Preview
The Sabres have been a breath of fresh air, pounding teams into submission during the regular season.
With a .788 points percentage, they were the best team since Dec. 9. Remarkably, the Sabres haven’t endured a notable dip, suffering just two three-game losing streaks since November.
They are also the best team since the Olympic break, reeling off an 18-4-2 record while scoring the third-most goals per game (3.67) and conceding the fifth-fewest (2.54).
I’m most impressed by their ruthlessness in front of the goal, boasting the second-best goals for above expected (23.33).
Why Bruins Will Pull Off Upset
Ironically, that stat is also the most concerning as they prepare to face Jeremy Swayman, who has enjoyed a Vezina-calibre season, highlighted by the second-best goals saved above expected (28.8).
That correlates to the Bruins having the best goals against above expected (-29.25). If Swayman’s outstanding play continues in the playoffs, and I don’t see any reason it won’t, I’m backing the Bruins to advance.
Swayman isn’t the only reason they have exceeded expectations, with the Bruins almost as ruthless as the Sabres. Marco Sturm’s team has the third-most goals above expected (22.09).
Those two factors, combined with more playoff experience, are why I’m calling the upset.
Sabres vs. Bruins Season Series
The Bruins got the better of the Sabres in the regular season, winning three of four. They won both at home and one on the road in overtime.
The Bruins outscored the Sabres 12-11.
Sabres and Bruins Season Stats
| Team | Goals For | Goals Against | Power Play % | Penalty Kill % | 1-Goal Game Record | Home Record | Away Record |
| Sabres | 3.46 | 2.93 | 19.8 | 82.1 | 15-3-8 | 26-10-4 | 24-13-4 |
| Bruins | 3.27 | 3.01 | 23.4 | 77 | 20-8-10 | 29-11-1 | 16-16-9 |
Sabres vs. Bruins: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not
Rasmus Dahlin has seven points in the previous five games, and Alex Tuch scored three goals in the last four.
Pavel Zacha, Morgan Geekie, and David Pastrnak are flying, with the latter transitioning from trigger to setup man recently. Zacha and Geekie have enjoyed career-best seasons in terms of goals.
Swayman is 9-6-1 with a .918 save percentage and 2.24 goals-against average (GAA) since Feb. 28.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is 10-2-1 with a .917 save percentage and 2.31 GAA in the same sample size.
Sabres vs. Bruins Best Bets
I’m predicting that the Bruins will win in seven games. The BetMGM online sportsbook has hockey odds for the Bruins to advance at +155.
With my Bruins’ series spread of +1.5 games, I’m hedging the bet slightly. This allows for the bet to cash if Boston loses in seven games.
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