- The Sabres are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Penguins
- Sabres vs. Penguins Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals
- TV Channel: RSN | TVA | ESPN
The Buffalo Sabres (36-19) visit PPG Paints Arena to take on the Pittsburgh Penguins (31-16) on Mar. 5 in Pittsburgh, PA. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Sabres are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+200).
The Sabres vs. Penguins Over/Under is 6.5 total goals.
Sabres vs. Penguins Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Sabres | -1.5 +200 | 6.5 -115 | -115 |
| Penguins | +1.5 -250 | 6.5 -105 | -105 |
Sabres vs Penguins Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Sabres will win this game with 52.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Sabres vs Penguins Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Penguins will cover the spread with 52.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Sabres Best Bets & Trends
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the Puck Line in 19 of their last 25 games (+19.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 20 away games (+15.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the 1P Puck Line in 16 of their last 20 games (+14.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the 2P Puck Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+12.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the 3P Puck Line in 13 of their last 15 away games (+12.00 Units / 55% ROI)
Penguins Best Bets & Trends
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have covered the 1P Puck Line in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+12.70 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have covered the Puck Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the 1P Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have covered the 2P Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Sabres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Sabres are 36-25 against the spread this NHL season (+12 Units / 12.89% ROI).
- Sabres are 36-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.2 Units /18.74% ROI
- Sabres are 29-29 when betting the Over for -2.65 Units / -3.93% ROI
- Sabres are 29-29 when betting the Under for -2.95 Units /-4.38% ROI
Penguins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Penguins are 37-23 against the spread this NHL season (+16.2 Units /17.63% ROI).
- Penguins are 31-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 4.71% ROI
- Penguins are 29-29 when betting the Over for -2.85 Units / -4.32% ROI
- Penguins are 29-29 when betting the Under for -3.25 Units / -4.87% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Penguins vs Sabres
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson (Buf) | +135 |
| Bryan Rust (Pit) | +195 |
| Rickard Rakell (Pit) | +210 |
| Alex Tuch (BUF) | +210 |
| Evgeni Malkin (Pit) | +220 |
| Jason Zucker (BUF) | +270 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Penguins vs Sabres
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Owen Power (BUF) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ben Kindel (PIT) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Kris Letang (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Thomas Novak (PIT) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Erik Karlsson (PIT) | 0.5 -118 | 0.5 -115 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Penguins vs Sabres
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Kindel (PIT) | 2.5 +130 | 2.5 -185 |
| Kris Letang (PIT) | 1.5 -120 | 1.5 -115 |
| Thomas Novak (PIT) | 1.5 -130 | 1.5 -105 |
| Erik Karlsson (PIT) | 2.5 +105 | 2.5 -140 |
| Jason Zucker (BUF) | 1.5 -145 | 1.5 +105 |
Sabres: Keys to the Game vs. Penguins
The Sabres were 34-45 (.430) last season — 9th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Sabres are 36-25 (.590) this season — 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Sabres were 16-14 (.533) when winning the xG advantage last season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .694
The Sabres were 11-42 (.208) when allowing 3 or more non-shootout goals last season — 9th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .246
Penguins: Keys to the Game vs. Sabres
The Penguins were 33-48 (.407) last season — 5th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Penguins are 5-83 (.057) when scoring 2 or fewer non-shootout goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .152
The Penguins are 102-120 (.459) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Penguins are 64-77 (.454) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 8th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Sabres Offensive Stats & Trends
The Sabres had 5 forecheck chances in 4v4 situations last season — tied for most among NHL Teams
The Sabres have 157 forecheck chances in the second period since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
The Sabres have 16 rush chances in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Sabres have 1.8 rush chances per game while tied this season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.4
Penguins Offensive Stats & Trends
The Penguins have 16.4 slot shots per game this season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 14.0
The Penguins had 66 second chance scoring opportunities in the third period last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Penguins have 11 second chance scoring opportunities in overtime since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among NHL Teams
The Penguins scored on 9% of second chance opportunities while tied last season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
Sabres Defensive Stats & Trends
The Sabres had a .887 save percentage last season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .901
The Sabres have 25.5 goals saved above expected in the second period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 7.8
The Sabres allowed 0.7 goals per game against the power play last season — tied for 3rd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.6
The Sabres allowed opponents to score on 14% of cycle chances while tied last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
Penguins Defensive Stats & Trends
The Penguins allowed opponents to score on 16% of rush chances last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11%
The Penguins allowed opponents to score on 16% of rush chances in 5v5 situations last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Penguins allowed opponents to score on 19% of rush chances in the third period last season — 2nd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 13%
The Penguins allowed opponents to score on 17% of rush chances in the first period last season — tied for highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
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