- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Sabres
- Sabres vs. Lightning Total (Over/Under): 6 goals
- TV Channel: SPOT | MSGB
The Buffalo Sabres (34-19) visit Benchmark International Arena to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (38-15) on Feb. 28 in Tampa, FL. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Sabres vs. Lightning Over/Under is 6 total goals.
Sabres vs. Lightning Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Sabres | +1.5 -120 | 6 +105 | +195 |
| Lightning | -1.5 +100 | 6 -125 | -235 |
Sabres vs Lightning Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 80.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Sabres vs Lightning Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Sabres will cover the spread with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Sabres Best Bets & Trends
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the Puck Line in 20 of their last 25 games (+21.30 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the 2P Puck Line in 19 of their last 25 games (+14.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the 1P Puck Line in 15 of their last 20 games (+12.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the 3P Puck Line in 13 of their last 15 away games (+12.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 away games (+11.95 Units / 56% ROI)
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+14.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 20 games (+12.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 15 of their last 20 games (+12.15 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+10.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 14 of their last 25 games (+7.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Sabres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Sabres are 35-24 against the spread this NHL season (+12 Units / 13.2% ROI).
- Sabres are 34-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.15 Units /14.92% ROI
- Sabres are 28-28 when betting the Over for -2.45 Units / -3.76% ROI
- Sabres are 28-28 when betting the Under for -2.85 Units /-4.37% ROI
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 30-27 against the spread this NHL season (+13.4 Units /18.72% ROI).
- Lightning are 38-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.6 Units / 12% ROI
- Lightning are 27-27 when betting the Over for -2.45 Units / -3.91% ROI
- Lightning are 27-27 when betting the Under for -2.55 Units / -4.05% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Lightning vs Sabres
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | +110 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | +140 |
| Tage Thompson (Buf) | +154 |
| Brandon Hagel (TB) | +165 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | +170 |
| Alex Tuch (BUF) | +260 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Lightning vs Sabres
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ryan McLeod (BUF) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 1.5 -135 | 1.5 +100 |
| Jason Zucker (BUF) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Josh Doan (BUF) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Lightning vs Sabres
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point (TB) | 2.5 -165 | 2.5 +120 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +100 |
| Jason Zucker (BUF) | 1.5 -190 | 1.5 +135 |
| Josh Doan (BUF) | 1.5 -200 | 1.5 +140 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | 2.5 -140 | 2.5 +105 |
Sabres: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Sabres were 34-45 (.430) last season — 9th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Sabres are 32-23 (.582) this season — 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Sabres are 16-1 (.941) when leading after the first period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .745
The Sabres were 16-14 (.533) when winning the xG advantage last season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .694
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Sabres
The Lightning are 37-18 (.673) this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 128-88 (.593) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 31-5 (.861) when scoring 3 or more non-shootout goals this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .712
Sabres Offensive Stats & Trends
The Sabres have 0.8 points per game while shorthanded this month — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.1
The Sabres have 0.3 points per game while shorthanded this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.1
The Sabres had 5 forecheck chances in 4v4 situations last season — tied for most among NHL Teams
The Sabres have 6 inner slot shots while shorthanded this month — most among NHL Teams
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have scored on 28% of second chance opportunities while leading since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning had 2.7 rush chances per game in the first period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning averaged 0.6 high danger chances per game while shorthanded last season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Lightning are 37-18 (.673) this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Sabres Defensive Stats & Trends
The Sabres allowed 1.3 goals per game in the third period last season — tied for 2nd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.1
The Sabres had a .887 save percentage last season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .901
The Sabres allowed 1.3 goals per game in the second period last season — tied for 2nd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
The Sabres have a .717 save percentage in overtime since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .816
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have allowed 8.8 high danger chances per game in 5v5 situations this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11.8
The Lightning have allowed 0.8 goals per game while tied this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning have allowed opponents to score on 7% of cycle chances in the second period since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
National Hockey League Betting at BetMGM
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