- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Red Wings
- Red Wings vs. Lightning Total (Over/Under): 6 goals
- TV Channel: SPOT | FDDT | TVA
The Detroit Red Wings (36-22) visit Benchmark International Arena to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (39-20) on Mar. 12 in Tampa, FL. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Red Wings vs. Lightning Over/Under is 6 total goals.
Red Wings vs. Lightning Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Red Wings | +1.5 -140 | 6 -105 | +170 |
| Lightning | -1.5 +115 | 6 -115 | -210 |
Red Wings vs Lightning Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 79.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Red Wings vs Lightning Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Red Wings will cover the spread with 72.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Red Wings Best Bets & Trends
- The Detroit Red Wings have covered the 2P Puck Line in 19 of their last 25 games (+13.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Detroit Red Wings have hit the 2P Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Detroit Red Wings have hit the 2P Game Total Under in 14 of their last 25 games (+8.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Detroit Red Wings have covered the Puck Line in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Detroit Red Wings have covered the 3P Puck Line in 17 of their last 25 away games (+7.10 Units / 19% ROI)
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+7.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.95 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+6.25 Units / 24% ROI)
Red Wings Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Red Wings are 33-32 against the spread this NHL season (-0.45 Units / -0.46% ROI).
- Red Wings are 36-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units /7.03% ROI
- Red Wings are 29-30 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -5% ROI
- Red Wings are 30-29 when betting the Under for -1.25 Units /-1.76% ROI
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 31-32 against the spread this NHL season (+9.55 Units /12.31% ROI).
- Lightning are 39-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 2.31% ROI
- Lightning are 31-28 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 0.72% ROI
- Lightning are 28-31 when betting the Under for -5.95 Units / -8.55% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Lightning vs Red Wings
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | +130 |
| Alex Debrincat (DET) | +170 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | +175 |
| Brandon Hagel (TB) | +175 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | +180 |
| Lucas Raymond (DET) | +250 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Lightning vs Red Wings
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point (TB) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 1.5 -110 | 1.5 -125 |
| Victor Hedman (TB) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Anthony Cirelli (TB) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Lightning vs Red Wings
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 2.5 -165 | 2.5 +125 |
| Victor Hedman (TB) | 1.5 -140 | 1.5 +100 |
| Anthony Cirelli (TB) | 1.5 -110 | 1.5 -120 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | 2.5 +100 | 2.5 -135 |
| Brandon Hagel (TB) | 2.5 -125 | 2.5 -110 |
Red Wings: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Red Wings are 20-12 (.625) when allowing less than 30 shots on goal this season — tied for 7th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .504
The Red Wings are 2-23 (.080) when allowing 4 or more non-shootout goals this season — 8th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .133
The Red Wings were 14-27 (.341) when allowing 14 or more high danger chances last season — 4th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .432
The Red Wings are 8-4 (.667) when tied after the second period this season — tied for 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Red Wings
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 39-24 (.619) this season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 85-57 (.599) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 129-90 (.589) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Red Wings Offensive Stats & Trends
The Red Wings scored on 2% of second chance opportunities in the second period last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 16%
The Red Wings scored on 11% of second chance opportunities last season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Red Wings have scored on 17% of cycle chances while leading this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Red Wings scored on 10% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have 2.6 rush chances per game in the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning primary assisted on 11 goals while shorthanded last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Lightning have scored on 26% of second chance opportunities while leading since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning have scored on 30% of second chance opportunities on the power play since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 18%
Red Wings Defensive Stats & Trends
The Red Wings have 7 successful stick checks on the power play this month — most among NHL Teams
The Red Wings have allowed opponents to score on 8% of cycle chances this season — tied for 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 9%
The Red Wings had 2,471 puck battle wins last season — 10th most among NHL Teams
The Red Wings had 1,278 successful stick checks last season — 10th most among NHL Teams
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning have allowed opponents to score on 7% of cycle chances in the second period since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Lightning have allowed 9.5 high danger chances per game in 5v5 situations this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 12.0
The Lightning had a .667 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .832
National Hockey League Betting at BetMGM
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