- The Senators are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Penguins
- Penguins vs. Senators Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals
- TV Channel: SNPT | TSN5 | RDS2
The Pittsburgh Penguins (35-20) visit Canadian Tire Centre to take on the Ottawa Senators (38-24) on Mar. 26 in Ottawa, ON. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Senators are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Penguins vs. Senators Over/Under is 6.5 total goals.
Penguins vs. Senators Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
Penguins vs Senators Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Senators will win this game with 65.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Penguins vs Senators Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Penguins will cover the spread with 55.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Penguins Best Bets & Trends
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have covered the 2P Puck Line in 10 of their last 11 away games (+10.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the 2P Moneyline in 11 of their last 25 away games (+8.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have covered the Puck Line in 9 of their last 13 away games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the 3P Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Senators Best Bets & Trends
- The Ottawa Senators have covered the 2P Puck Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+11.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have covered the Puck Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have hit the 2P Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have hit the 1P Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)
Penguins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Penguins are 41-30 against the spread this NHL season (+9.25 Units / 8.44% ROI).
- Penguins are 35-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units /1.09% ROI
- Penguins are 38-31 when betting the Over for +3.75 Units / 4.76% ROI
- Penguins are 31-38 when betting the Under for -10.7 Units /-13.64% ROI
Senators Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Senators are 33-38 against the spread this NHL season (+0.7 Units /0.75% ROI).
- Senators are 38-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -2.37% ROI
- Senators are 37-33 when betting the Over for -0.05 Units / -0.06% ROI
- Senators are 33-37 when betting the Under for -6.7 Units / -8.72% ROI
Points Per Game Predictions for Senators vs Penguins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spence (OTT) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Thomas Novak (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Erik Karlsson (PIT) | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Bryan Rust (PIT) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Shane Pinto (OTT) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Senators vs Penguins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spence (OTT) | 1.5 -125 | 1.5 -110 |
| Ben Kindel (PIT) | 1.5 -135 | 1.5 +100 |
| Erik Karlsson (PIT) | 2.5 +135 | 2.5 -190 |
| Bryan Rust (PIT) | 2.5 -105 | 2.5 -130 |
| Shane Pinto (OTT) | 1.5 -190 | 1.5 +135 |
Penguins: Keys to the Game vs. Senators
The Penguins are 12-28 (.300) when tied after the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Penguins are 66-84 (.440) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 7th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Penguins were 5-18 (.217) when tied after the first period last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Penguins were 33-48 (.407) last season — 5th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Senators: Keys to the Game vs. Penguins
The Senators are 13-23 (.361) when allowing 14 or more high danger chances this season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .469
The Senators are 29-17 (.630) when outshooting their opponents this season — 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .513
The Senators are 17-61 (.218) when trailing after the first period since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .266
The Senators were 7-10 (.412) when tied after the second period last season — 9th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Penguins Offensive Stats & Trends
The Penguins have 56 cycle chances in overtime since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
The Penguins have 39 inner slot shots in overtime since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
The Penguins have 7 second chance scoring opportunities in overtime this season — most among NHL Teams
The Penguins have 5.3 slot shots per game in the first period this season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 4.4
Senators Offensive Stats & Trends
The Senators have 21 cycle chances in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Senators have drawn 94 penalties in the first period this season — most among NHL Teams
The Senators have 25 slot shots in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Senators have 38 cycle chances in 4v4 situations since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
Penguins Defensive Stats & Trends
The Penguins have allowed 0.2 goals per game while their opponent is shorthanded this season — tied for highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.1
The Penguins allowed opponents to score on 16% of rush chances last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11%
The Penguins allowed opponents to score on 16% of rush chances in 5v5 situations last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Penguins have allowed 0.6 high danger chances per game while their opponent is shorthanded this season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
Senators Defensive Stats & Trends
The Senators have allowed opponents to score on 26% of second chance opportunities this season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 15%
The Senators have a .795 slot save percentage this season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .829
The Senators have allowed opponents to score on 24% of second chance opportunities since the start of the 2024-25 season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 16%
The Senators have allowed opponents to score on 32% of second chance opportunities while tied this season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 16%
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