- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Penguins
- Penguins vs. Lightning Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals
- TV Channel: SNPT | SPOT
The Pittsburgh Penguins (38-21) visit Benchmark International Arena to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (46-22) on Apr. 2 in Tampa, FL. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Penguins vs. Lightning Over/Under is 6.5 total goals.
Penguins vs. Lightning Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
Penguins vs Lightning Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 66.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Penguins vs Lightning Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lightning will cover the spread with 57.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Penguins Best Bets & Trends
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have covered the 2P Puck Line in 12 of their last 13 away games (+12.05 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the 2P Moneyline in 11 of their last 25 away games (+9.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have covered the Puck Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 away games (+5.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 13 of their last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+8.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 3P Game Total Over in 10 of their last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 23% ROI)
Penguins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Penguins are 44-31 against the spread this NHL season (+11.15 Units / 9.54% ROI).
- Penguins are 38-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units /3.76% ROI
- Penguins are 41-32 when betting the Over for +5.65 Units / 6.78% ROI
- Penguins are 32-41 when betting the Under for -12.9 Units /-15.59% ROI
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 37-37 against the spread this NHL season (+12.95 Units /14.53% ROI).
- Lightning are 46-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 1.41% ROI
- Lightning are 37-32 when betting the Over for +2.25 Units / 2.77% ROI
- Lightning are 32-37 when betting the Under for -8.65 Units / -10.56% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Lightning vs Penguins
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | +115 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | +130 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | +195 |
| Sidney Crosby (Pit) | +200 |
| Rickard Rakell (Pit) | +220 |
| Yegor Chinakhov (PIT) | +250 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Lightning vs Penguins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Gage Goncalves (TB) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Erik Karlsson (PIT) | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Anthony Cirelli (TB) | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Sidney Crosby (PIT) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Lightning vs Penguins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Kindel (PIT) | 1.5 -145 | 1.5 +105 |
| Gage Goncalves (TB) | 1.5 +105 | 1.5 -140 |
| Erik Karlsson (PIT) | 2.5 +105 | 2.5 -140 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 2.5 +110 | 2.5 -150 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -130 |
Penguins: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Penguins were 33-48 (.407) last season — 5th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Penguins were 5-18 (.217) when tied after the first period last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Penguins are winless (0-23) when scoring 2 or fewer non-shootout goals this season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .166
The Penguins are 14-28 (.333) when tied after the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Penguins
The Lightning are 45-27 (.625) this season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 91-60 (.603) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 31-18 (.633) when allowing 35 or more shots on goal since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .470
Penguins Offensive Stats & Trends
The Penguins have 58 cycle chances in overtime since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
The Penguins have 10 second chance scoring opportunities in overtime since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
The Penguins have 8 second chance scoring opportunities in overtime this season — most among NHL Teams
The Penguins scored on 12% of second chance opportunities last season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have 2.5 rush chances per game in the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning primary assisted on 11 goals while shorthanded last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Lightning have 9.7 points per game since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 8.2
The Lightning averaged 0.13 expected goals per game while shorthanded last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.08
Penguins Defensive Stats & Trends
The Penguins allowed opponents to score on 16% of rush chances in 5v5 situations last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Penguins allowed opponents to score on 16% of rush chances last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11%
The Penguins have allowed opponents to score on 7% of cycle chances while tied since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 9%
The Penguins have allowed 0.5 high danger chances per game while their opponent is shorthanded since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 2nd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning had a .667 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .832
The Lightning have allowed 4.7 high danger chances per game in the second period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 6.0
The Lightning have allowed 1.74 expected goals per game in 5v5 situations this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.11
National Hockey League Betting at BetMGM
At the BetMGM online sportsbook, NHL betting is available throughout the year.
Hockey betting lines are posted for the latest Maple Leafs Stanley Cup odds, Oilers playoffs odds, live betting, and more.
BetMGM also has the odds for the betting favourites to win the Stanley Cup this year.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
