- The Sens have the best Corsi rating (58.45%) in the playoffs.
- The Sens have the sixth-best expected goals percentage (52.31) but the worst goals percentage (33.33).
- Linus Ullmark has the third-worst goals saved above expected (-4.6).
The Ottawa Senators finally got to Anthony Stolarz, scoring more than two goals for the first time this series in their Game 4 overtime victory.
Travis Green’s team is trying to become the fifth team in 205 attempts to overturn a 3-0 series deficit. For the Sens to claw their way back, they must closely follow the Game 4 blueprint.
On Saturday, the Senators scored a power-play goal for the third straight game and created more chances with fewer shots while preventing the Maple Leafs from notching one with the man advantage.
Despite firing just 21 shots on Stolarz, the Senators created the most chances of the series, with 2.37 expected goals 5-on-5.
It marked the first time either team had more than two expected goals 5-on-5, underpinning the defensive nature of the series.
Ottawa Senators Stanley Cup Odds
The Senators’ Stanley Cup odds are the third longest (+15000) of the 16 playoff teams. Only the Montreal Canadiens (+30000) and New Jersey Devils (+30000) have longer hockey odds to win the Cup.
The Maple Leafs’ Stanley Cup odds (+750) are tied for the third shortest with the Dallas Stars.
Ottawa Senators Eastern Conference Odds
The Senators’ online sports betting odds (+6000) to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final imply a 1.64% probability.
Considering only 2% of teams have come back from a 0-3 series deficit, those odds are shorter than I expected.
Toronto’s odds to advance to the Stanley Cup Final sit at +400, carrying an implied probability of 20%.
Ottawa Senators Next Game
- Opponent: Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date: Tuesday
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN, Sportsnet
- Radio: WGR 550, TSN 1200
Despite turning aside 31 of 34 shots, Ullmark finished Game 4 with -0.74 goals saved above expected. It was the first time he faced more than 24 shots in the series.
While the Maple Leafs finally had a productive outing regarding their shot total, they didn’t create many Grade A chances, finishing with 1.91 expected goals 5-on-5.
Ullmark will be thrilled about escaping with the win despite his substandard goals saved above expected.
The 31-year-old has struggled to find his best form, one of the reasons his team is one loss away from being eliminated. He hasn’t yet had a game with goals saved above expected above zero.
The Sens have also lost the special teams battle thus far, the other principal reason for their precarious position heading into Game 5.
Have the Ottawa Senators Won the Stanley Cup?
The Senators have never won the Stanley Cup. They lost to the Anaheim Ducks in five games in the 2007 Stanley Cup Final and have advanced to the Eastern Conference final twice, the most recent of which occurred in 2017.
