- The Senators are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Maple Leafs
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators Total (Over/Under): 6 goals
- TV Channel: RSN | CBC | TVA2
The Toronto Maple Leafs (29-28) visit Canadian Tire Centre to take on the Ottawa Senators (35-24) on Mar. 21 in Ottawa, ON. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Senators are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (-102).
The Maple Leafs vs. Senators Over/Under is 6 total goals.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Maple Leafs | +1.5 -118 | 6 -105 | +200 |
| Senators | -1.5 -102 | 6 -115 | -250 |
Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Senators will win this game with 90.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Maple Leafs vs Senators Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Senators will cover the spread with 58.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Maple Leafs Best Bets & Trends
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have covered the 2P Puck Line in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the 1P Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the 3P Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 away games (+6.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 12 of their last 25 games (+6.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have covered the 1P Puck Line in 16 of their last 25 away games (+4.60 Units / 11% ROI)
Senators Best Bets & Trends
- The Ottawa Senators have covered the 2P Puck Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+8.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have covered the Puck Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have hit the 2P Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+5.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have covered the 3P Puck Line in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.50 Units / 16% ROI)
Maple Leafs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Maple Leafs are 30-40 against the spread this NHL season (-18.15 Units / -17.21% ROI).
- Maple Leafs are 29-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.15 Units /-16.74% ROI
- Maple Leafs are 38-27 when betting the Over for +8.05 Units / 10.37% ROI
- Maple Leafs are 27-38 when betting the Under for -14.65 Units /-19.06% ROI
Senators Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Senators are 31-37 against the spread this NHL season (-0.3 Units /-0.34% ROI).
- Senators are 35-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -5.86% ROI
- Senators are 36-31 when betting the Over for +1.2 Units / 1.57% ROI
- Senators are 31-36 when betting the Under for -7.7 Units / -10.45% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Senators vs Maple Leafs
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk (Ott) | +140 |
| Tim Stutzle (Ott) | +175 |
| Drake Batherson (Ott) | +185 |
| William Nylander (Tor) | +190 |
| Dylan Cozens (OTT) | +210 |
| John Tavares (Tor) | +220 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Senators vs Maple Leafs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Max Domi (TOR) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matthew Knies (TOR) | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Morgan Rielly (TOR) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Matias Maccelli (TOR) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Senators vs Maple Leafs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Knies (TOR) | 1.5 -145 | 1.5 +105 |
| Matias Maccelli (TOR) | 1.5 -130 | 1.5 -105 |
| William Nylander (TOR) | 2.5 +120 | 2.5 -160 |
| Nicholas Robertson (TOR) | 1.5 -115 | 1.5 -118 |
| John Tavares (TOR) | 2.5 +115 | 2.5 -160 |
Maple Leafs: Keys to the Game vs. Senators
The Maple Leafs were 50-29 (.633) last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs are 29-40 (.420) this season — 8th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs are 123-98 (.557) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs are 79-69 (.534) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Senators: Keys to the Game vs. Maple Leafs
The Senators are 12-23 (.343) when allowing 14 or more high danger chances this season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .468
The Senators were 4-23 (.148) when trailing after the first period last season — 6th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .285
The Senators are 28-17 (.622) when outshooting their opponents this season — 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .513
The Senators are 10-7 (.588) when tied after the second period this season — 7th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Maple Leafs Offensive Stats & Trends
The Maple Leafs scored on 37% of second chance opportunities on the power play last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Maple Leafs have 1.6 rush chances per game in the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Maple Leafs have averaged 2.92 expected goals per game this season — 7th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 3.09
The Maple Leafs scored on 15% of rush chances in the second period last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
Senators Offensive Stats & Trends
The Senators have 21 cycle chances in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Senators have 25 slot shots in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Senators have 38 cycle chances in 4v4 situations since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
The Senators have 11 second chance scoring opportunities in 4v4 situations since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among NHL Teams
Maple Leafs Defensive Stats & Trends
The Maple Leafs allowed opponents to score on 8% of cycle chances last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Maple Leafs have made 30.8 saves per game this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 26.9
The Maple Leafs have allowed 40 forecheck chances this month — most among NHL Teams
The Maple Leafs have allowed 195 rush chances in the second period this season — most among NHL Teams
Senators Defensive Stats & Trends
The Senators have allowed opponents to score on 26% of second chance opportunities this season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 15%
The Senators have a .794 slot save percentage this season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .830
The Senators have allowed opponents to score on 24% of second chance opportunities since the start of the 2024-25 season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 16%
The Senators have a .820 slot save percentage in 5v5 situations since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .840
National Hockey League Betting at BetMGM
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Hockey betting lines are posted for the latest Maple Leafs Stanley Cup odds, Oilers playoffs odds, live betting, and more.
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