- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Maple Leafs
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Total (Over/Under): 6 goals
- TV Channel: TNT | HBOM | tru | TVA
The Toronto Maple Leafs (27-21) visit Benchmark International Arena to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (37-14) on Feb. 25 in Tampa, FL. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+118).
The Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Over/Under is 6 total goals.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Maple Leafs | +1.5 -140 | 6 -105 | +180 |
| Lightning | -1.5 +118 | 6 -115 | -220 |
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 90.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Maple Leafs will cover the spread with 63.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Maple Leafs Best Bets & Trends
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the 3P Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the 1P Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have covered the 3P Puck Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 48% ROI)
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 20 games (+14.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the Puck Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 3P Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
Maple Leafs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Maple Leafs are 25-32 against the spread this NHL season (-10.55 Units / -12.44% ROI).
- Maple Leafs are 27-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.95 Units /-8.37% ROI
- Maple Leafs are 32-21 when betting the Over for +8.8 Units / 13.92% ROI
- Maple Leafs are 21-32 when betting the Under for -14.1 Units /-22.58% ROI
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 28-27 against the spread this NHL season (+11.25 Units /16.38% ROI).
- Lightning are 37-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.6 Units / 12.46% ROI
- Lightning are 26-27 when betting the Over for -3.45 Units / -5.72% ROI
- Lightning are 27-26 when betting the Under for -1.55 Units / -2.55% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Lightning vs Maple Leafs
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | +115 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | +145 |
| Brandon Hagel (TB) | +160 |
| Auston Matthews (TOR) | +165 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | +180 |
| William Nylander (Tor) | +220 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Lightning vs Maple Leafs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 1.5 -135 | 1.5 +100 |
| Yanni Gourde (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Matthew Knies (TOR) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Brandon Hagel (TB) | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Lightning vs Maple Leafs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -145 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | 2.5 -125 | 2.5 -110 |
| Matthew Knies (TOR) | 1.5 -115 | 1.5 -118 |
| Darren Raddysh (TB) | 2.5 -160 | 2.5 +120 |
| Morgan Rielly (TOR) | 1.5 -105 | 1.5 -130 |
Maple Leafs: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Maple Leafs were 50-29 (.633) last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs are 75-58 (.564) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 7th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs are 121-94 (.563) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs are 25-29 (.463) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Maple Leafs
The Lightning are 37-18 (.673) this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 128-88 (.593) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 31-5 (.861) when scoring 3 or more non-shootout goals this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .712
Maple Leafs Offensive Stats & Trends
The Maple Leafs scored on 37% of second chance opportunities on the power play last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Maple Leafs have scored on 22% of rush chances in the third period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 12%
The Maple Leafs have 2.7 rush chances per game in the second period this season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.3
The Maple Leafs had 5.9 rush chances per game last season — tied for 8th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 6.4
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have scored on 28% of second chance opportunities while leading since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning had 2.7 rush chances per game in the first period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning averaged 0.6 high danger chances per game while shorthanded last season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Lightning are 37-18 (.673) this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Maple Leafs Defensive Stats & Trends
The Maple Leafs allowed opponents to score on 8% of cycle chances last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Maple Leafs have allowed opponents to score on 6% of rush chances in overtime since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 13%
The Maple Leafs have allowed 14 cycle chances in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Maple Leafs have made 10.0 saves per game in the third period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 8.4
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have allowed 8.8 high danger chances per game in 5v5 situations this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11.8
The Lightning have allowed 0.8 goals per game while tied this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning have allowed opponents to score on 7% of cycle chances in the second period since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
National Hockey League Betting at BetMGM
At the BetMGM online sportsbook, NHL betting is available throughout the year.
Hockey betting lines are posted for the latest Maple Leafs Stanley Cup odds, Oilers playoffs odds, live betting, and more.
BetMGM also has the odds for the betting favourites to win the Stanley Cup this year.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
