- The Canadiens are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Maple Leafs
- Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals
- TV Channel: RSN | RDS
The Toronto Maple Leafs (27-26) visit Bell Centre to take on the Montreal Canadiens (34-18) on Mar. 10 in Montreal, QC. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Canadiens are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Over/Under is 6.5 total goals.
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Maple Leafs | +1.5 -160 | 6.5 +105 | +140 |
| Canadiens | -1.5 +135 | 6.5 -125 | -170 |
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Canadiens will win this game with 74.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Maple Leafs will cover the spread with 52.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Maple Leafs Best Bets & Trends
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the 3P Game Total Over in 14 of their last 25 away games (+8.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the 1P Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 away games (+5.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have covered the 1P Puck Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Canadiens Best Bets & Trends
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+12.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have covered the Puck Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the 3P Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+6.35 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the 1P Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
Maple Leafs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Maple Leafs are 26-38 against the spread this NHL season (-19.55 Units / -20.11% ROI).
- Maple Leafs are 27-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.3 Units /-16.95% ROI
- Maple Leafs are 36-23 when betting the Over for +10.7 Units / 15.16% ROI
- Maple Leafs are 23-36 when betting the Under for -16.7 Units /-23.7% ROI
Canadiens Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Canadiens are 36-26 against the spread this NHL season (+8.95 Units /8.91% ROI).
- Canadiens are 34-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.9 Units / 5.31% ROI
- Canadiens are 39-21 when betting the Over for +15.7 Units / 22.8% ROI
- Canadiens are 21-39 when betting the Under for -22.15 Units / -32.48% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Canadiens vs Maple Leafs
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield (MTL) | +120 |
| Auston Matthews (TOR) | +150 |
| Nick Suzuki (MTL) | +195 |
| William Nylander (Tor) | +195 |
| Juraj Slafkovsky (MTL) | +200 |
| Matthew Knies (Tor) | +270 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Canadiens vs Maple Leafs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson (TOR) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matthew Knies (TOR) | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Juraj Slafkovsky (MTL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Mike Matheson (MTL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alex Newhook (MTL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Canadiens vs Maple Leafs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Oliver Kapanen (MTL) | 1.5 -120 | 1.5 -110 |
| Brendan Gallagher (MTL) | 1.5 -110 | 1.5 -120 |
| Zachary Bolduc (MTL) | 1.5 -110 | 1.5 -120 |
| Matthew Knies (TOR) | 1.5 -175 | 1.5 +130 |
| Juraj Slafkovsky (MTL) | 2.5 -120 | 2.5 -110 |
Maple Leafs: Keys to the Game vs. Canadiens
The Maple Leafs were 50-29 (.633) last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs are 27-37 (.422) this season — 8th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs are 123-98 (.557) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs were 36-13 (.735) when creating 5 or more rush chances last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .544
Canadiens: Keys to the Game vs. Maple Leafs
The Canadiens are 102-119 (.462) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 8th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Canadiens are 6-85 (.066) when allowing 4 or more non-shootout goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .130
The Canadiens are 50-4 (.926) when allowing 2 or fewer non-shootout goals since the start of the 2024-25 season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .847
The Canadiens are 21-10 (.677) when having 3 or more xG. this season — 7th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .600
Maple Leafs Offensive Stats & Trends
The Maple Leafs scored on 37% of second chance opportunities on the power play last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Maple Leafs were 50-29 (.633) last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs have scored on 19% of rush chances in the third period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 12%
The Maple Leafs scored 257 goals last season — 10th most among NHL Teams
Canadiens Offensive Stats & Trends
The Canadiens have 8.31 expected goals in overtime this season — most among NHL Teams
The Canadiens have 9.7 points per game this season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 8.3
The Canadiens have 65 cycle chances in overtime since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among NHL Teams
The Canadiens have secondary assisted on 174 goals this season — tied for 3rd most among NHL Teams
Maple Leafs Defensive Stats & Trends
The Maple Leafs have allowed 2.9 rush chances per game in the second period this season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.3
The Maple Leafs allowed opponents to score on 8% of cycle chances last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Maple Leafs have allowed 184 rush chances in the second period this season — most among NHL Teams
The Maple Leafs have made 30.5 saves per game this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 26.9
Canadiens Defensive Stats & Trends
The Canadiens have allowed 0.03 expected goals per game while their opponent is shorthanded this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.08
The Canadiens have allowed 5 second chance scoring opportunities in 4v4 situations this season — tied for most among NHL Teams
The Canadiens allowed 2.4 rush chances per game in the third period last season — tied for highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.9
The Canadiens have allowed 0.2 high danger chances per game while their opponent is shorthanded this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
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