- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Wild
- Lightning vs. Wild Total (Over/Under): 6 goals
- TV Channel: TNT | SPOT | HBOM | tru
The Tampa Bay Lightning (38-16) visit Grand Casino Arena to take on the Minnesota Wild (35-16) on Mar. 3 in Saint Paul, MN. The puck drop is scheduled for 9:30 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+180).
The Lightning vs. Wild Over/Under is 6 total goals.
Lightning vs. Wild Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Lightning | -1.5 +180 | 6 +100 | -135 |
| Wild | +1.5 -220 | 6 -120 | +110 |
Lightning vs Wild Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 66.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Lightning vs Wild Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Wild will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the Puck Line in 17 of their last 25 away games (+15.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+13.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 25 games (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 11 of their last 15 away games (+9.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 3P Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 away games (+7.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Wild Best Bets & Trends
- The Minnesota Wild have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 25 games (+14.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Minnesota Wild have hit the 2P Game Total Under in 13 of their last 25 games at home (+7.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Wild have hit the 1P Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+6.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Wild have hit the 3P Game Total Over in 10 of their last 20 games (+6.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Minnesota Wild have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 30-28 against the spread this NHL season (+12.4 Units / 17.08% ROI).
- Lightning are 38-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.2 Units /9.04% ROI
- Lightning are 28-27 when betting the Over for -1.45 Units / -2.28% ROI
- Lightning are 27-28 when betting the Under for -3.65 Units /-5.69% ROI
Wild Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Wild are 31-30 against the spread this NHL season (+4.15 Units /4.56% ROI).
- Wild are 35-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 3.1% ROI
- Wild are 36-24 when betting the Over for +9 Units / 13.03% ROI
- Wild are 24-36 when betting the Under for -14.1 Units / -21.43% ROI
Points Per Game Predictions for Wild vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov (MIN) | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Mats Zuccarello (MIN) | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 1.5 -115 | 1.5 -118 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Wild vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov (MIN) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko (MIN) | 1.5 -135 | 1.5 -105 |
| Mats Zuccarello (MIN) | 2.5 +140 | 2.5 -190 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 2.5 -115 | 2.5 -120 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -125 |
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Wild
The Lightning are 38-20 (.655) this season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 129-90 (.589) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 24-10 (.706) when allowing 35 or more shots on goal since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .462
Wild: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Wild are 35-26 (.574) this season — tied for 6th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Wild are 79-63 (.556) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 7th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Wild were 39-6 (.867) when scoring 3 or more non-shootout goals last season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .754
The Wild were 20-9 (.690) when outshooting their opponents last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .553
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have scored on 26% of second chance opportunities while leading since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning averaged 0.6 high danger chances per game while shorthanded last season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Lightning have scored on 30% of second chance opportunities on the power play since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 18%
The Lightning primary assisted on 11 goals while shorthanded last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
Wild Offensive Stats & Trends
The Wild have scored on 8% of second chance opportunities while leading since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Wild have scored 5 power play goals in overtime since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
The Wild have scored 52 power play goals this season — 3rd most among NHL Teams
The Wild scored on 3% of second chance opportunities in the first period last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning had a .800 save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .893
The Lightning have allowed 0.7 goals per game in the second period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
The Lightning have allowed 1.70 expected goals per game in 5v5 situations this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.10
Wild Defensive Stats & Trends
The Wild allowed opponents to score on 7% of rush chances last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11%
The Wild have allowed opponents to score on 6% of rush chances in the first period since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Wild allowed opponents to score on 3% of rush chances in the first period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Wild have allowed 0.0 goals per game while their opponent is shorthanded this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.1
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