- The Senators are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Lightning
- Lightning vs. Senators Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals
- TV Channel: SPOT | RDS2 | TSN5
The Tampa Bay Lightning (48-23) visit Canadian Tire Centre to take on the Ottawa Senators (40-27) on Apr. 7 in Ottawa, ON. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Senators are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+180).
The Lightning vs. Senators Over/Under is 6.5 total goals.
Lightning vs. Senators Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
Lightning vs Senators Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Senators will win this game with 59.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Lightning vs Senators Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Senators will cover the spread with 50.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 away games (+8.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the Puck Line in 13 of their last 25 away games (+7.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 12 of their last 25 games (+7.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 3P Puck Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+7.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Senators Best Bets & Trends
- The Ottawa Senators have hit the 2P Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have covered the 2P Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have hit the 3P Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+6.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have covered the Puck Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+6.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Ottawa Senators have hit the 3P Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 55% ROI)
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 39-38 against the spread this NHL season (+14.9 Units / 16.18% ROI).
- Lightning are 48-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units /2.04% ROI
- Lightning are 38-34 when betting the Over for +0.95 Units / 1.12% ROI
- Lightning are 34-38 when betting the Under for -7.65 Units /-8.99% ROI
Senators Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Senators are 35-42 against the spread this NHL season (-1.3 Units /-1.28% ROI).
- Senators are 40-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.95 Units / -5.57% ROI
- Senators are 40-35 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 0.92% ROI
- Senators are 35-40 when betting the Under for -8 Units / -9.58% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Senators vs Lightning
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | +160 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | +180 |
| Brady Tkachuk (Ott) | +190 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | +200 |
| Tim Stuetzle (OTT) | +210 |
| Drake Batherson (Ott) | +210 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Senators vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spence (OTT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Gage Goncalves (TB) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 1.5 +100 | 1.5 -130 |
| Shane Pinto (OTT) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Senators vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spence (OTT) | 1.5 -130 | 1.5 -105 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 1.5 -185 | 1.5 +135 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 2.5 -185 | 2.5 +135 |
| Shane Pinto (OTT) | 1.5 -160 | 1.5 +120 |
| Darren Raddysh (TB) | 2.5 +100 | 2.5 -135 |
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Senators
The Lightning are 47-28 (.627) this season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 129-90 (.589) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 31-18 (.633) when allowing 35 or more shots on goal since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .470
Senators: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Senators are 12-19 (.387) when recording less than 30 shots on goal this season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .495
The Senators were 4-23 (.148) when trailing after the first period last season — 6th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .285
The Senators are 2-22 (.083) when trailing after the second period this season — 8th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .140
The Senators were 22-5 (.815) when leading after the first period last season — 7th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .715
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have scored on 26% of second chance opportunities while leading since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning primary assisted on 11 goals while shorthanded last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Lightning had 2.7 rush chances per game in the first period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning averaged 0.13 expected goals per game while shorthanded last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.08
Senators Offensive Stats & Trends
The Senators have drawn 99 penalties in the first period this season — most among NHL Teams
The Senators have 21 cycle chances in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Senators had 0.3 points per game while shorthanded last season — tied for 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.2
The Senators have 74 slot shots in 4v4 situations since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among NHL Teams
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning had a .667 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .832
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 10% of second chance opportunities last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning have allowed 1.74 expected goals per game in 5v5 situations this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.11
Senators Defensive Stats & Trends
The Senators have a .813 slot save percentage since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .829
The Senators have a .819 slot save percentage in 5v5 situations since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .840
The Senators have a .790 slot save percentage in the first period this season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .839
The Senators have a .795 slot save percentage this season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .828
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