- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Sabres
- Lightning vs. Sabres Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals
- TV Channel: SPOT | MSGB | TVA | NHL
The Tampa Bay Lightning (48-22) visit KeyBank Center to take on the Buffalo Sabres (46-23) on Apr. 6 in Buffalo, NY. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+195).
The Lightning vs. Sabres Over/Under is 6.5 total goals.
Lightning vs. Sabres Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
Lightning vs Sabres Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 57.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Lightning vs Sabres Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lightning will cover the spread with 57.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 13 of their last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 3P Puck Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the Puck Line in 13 of their last 25 away games (+7.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 away games (+7.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 3P Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.30 Units / 37% ROI)
Sabres Best Bets & Trends
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the 3P Puck Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have hit the 2P Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have hit the 1P Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the 1P Puck Line in 13 of their last 25 games at home (+5.55 Units / 20% ROI)
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 39-37 against the spread this NHL season (+15.9 Units / 17.45% ROI).
- Lightning are 48-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units /2.99% ROI
- Lightning are 38-33 when betting the Over for +2.05 Units / 2.45% ROI
- Lightning are 33-38 when betting the Under for -8.65 Units /-10.3% ROI
Sabres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Sabres are 42-35 against the spread this NHL season (+9.35 Units /8.27% ROI).
- Sabres are 46-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.55 Units / 15.36% ROI
- Sabres are 36-38 when betting the Over for -5.95 Units / -6.93% ROI
- Sabres are 38-36 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -1.3% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Sabres vs Lightning
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | +150 |
| Tage Thompson (Buf) | +155 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | +175 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | +230 |
| Alex Tuch (BUF) | +240 |
| Jason Zucker (BUF) | +270 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Sabres vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Owen Power (BUF) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -325 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Ryan McLeod (BUF) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jason Zucker (BUF) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 1.5 +110 | 1.5 -145 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Sabres vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point (TB) | 2.5 +140 | 2.5 -190 |
| Jason Zucker (BUF) | 1.5 -165 | 1.5 +120 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -175 |
| Darren Raddysh (TB) | 2.5 -118 | 2.5 -115 |
| Anthony Cirelli (TB) | 1.5 +100 | 1.5 -140 |
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Sabres
The Lightning are 47-27 (.635) this season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 93-60 (.608) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 24-11 (.686) when allowing 35 or more shots on goal since the start of the 2024-25 season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .460
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Sabres: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Sabres were 34-45 (.430) last season — 9th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Sabres are 44-31 (.587) this season — tied for 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Sabres were 16-14 (.533) when winning the xG advantage last season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .694
The Sabres are 28-3 (.903) when allowing 2 or fewer non-shootout goals this season — tied for 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .835
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning averaged 0.6 high danger chances per game while shorthanded last season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Lightning have scored on 26% of second chance opportunities while leading since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning primary assisted on 11 goals while shorthanded last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Lightning averaged 17.6 high danger chances per game last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 15.0
Sabres Offensive Stats & Trends
The Sabres had 5 forecheck chances in 4v4 situations last season — tied for most among NHL Teams
The Sabres have 169 forecheck chances in the second period since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
The Sabres had 19 cycle chances in 4v4 situations last season — most among NHL Teams
The Sabres have 1.9 rush chances per game while tied this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.4
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning had a .667 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .832
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning have allowed 14.6 high danger chances per game this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17.3
The Lightning had a .800 save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .893
Sabres Defensive Stats & Trends
The Sabres allowed 1.3 goals per game in the third period last season — tied for 2nd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.1
The Sabres allowed 1.3 goals per game in the second period last season — tied for 2nd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
The Sabres have a .652 slot save percentage in overtime this season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .803
The Sabres allowed 0.7 goals per game against the power play last season — tied for 3rd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.6
National Hockey League Betting at BetMGM
At the BetMGM online sportsbook, NHL betting is available throughout the year.
Hockey betting lines are posted for the latest Maple Leafs Stanley Cup odds, Oilers playoffs odds, live betting, and more.
BetMGM also has the odds for the betting favourites to win the Stanley Cup this year.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
