- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Oilers
- Lightning vs. Oilers Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals
- TV Channel: CBC | CITY | SPOT | RSN
The Tampa Bay Lightning (42-21) visit Rogers Place to take on the Edmonton Oilers (34-27) on Mar. 21 in Edmonton. The puck drop is scheduled for 10:00 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Lightning vs. Oilers Over/Under is 6.5 total goals.
Lightning vs. Oilers Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Lightning | -1.5 +155 | 6.5 +110 | -145 |
| Oilers | +1.5 -190 | 6.5 -135 | +118 |
Lightning vs Oilers Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 63.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Lightning vs Oilers Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lightning will cover the spread with 62.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the Puck Line in 14 of their last 25 away games (+9.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+9.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 3P Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+6.65 Units / 36% ROI)
Oilers Best Bets & Trends
- The Edmonton Oilers have covered the 2P Puck Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+7.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Edmonton Oilers have hit the 1P Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Edmonton Oilers have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Edmonton Oilers have hit the 3P Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Edmonton Oilers have hit the 2P Game Total Under in 5 of their last 10 games (+3.95 Units / 37% ROI)
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 34-33 against the spread this NHL season (+12.05 Units / 14.7% ROI).
- Lightning are 42-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units /3.7% ROI
- Lightning are 33-30 when betting the Over for +0.4 Units / 0.54% ROI
- Lightning are 30-33 when betting the Under for -6.15 Units /-8.3% ROI
Oilers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Oilers are 27-43 against the spread this NHL season (-10.95 Units /-12.95% ROI).
- Oilers are 34-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.1 Units / -16.41% ROI
- Oilers are 39-27 when betting the Over for +9.15 Units / 11.58% ROI
- Oilers are 27-39 when betting the Under for -15.15 Units / -19.71% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Oilers vs Lightning
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Connor McDavid (EDM) | +130 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | +130 |
| Zach Hyman (Edm) | +155 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | +170 |
| Brandon Hagel (TB) | +190 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | +200 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Oilers vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM) | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Connor McDavid (EDM) | 1.5 -110 | 1.5 -120 |
| Vasily Podkolzin (EDM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -110 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 1.5 +100 | 1.5 -135 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Oilers vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM) | 1.5 -160 | 1.5 +120 |
| Connor McDavid (EDM) | 2.5 -165 | 2.5 +125 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 1.5 -145 | 1.5 +110 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 2.5 -185 | 2.5 +130 |
| Victor Hedman (TB) | 1.5 +110 | 1.5 -150 |
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Oilers
The Lightning are 42-24 (.636) this season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 129-90 (.589) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 26-12 (.684) when allowing less than 30 shots on goal this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Oilers: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Oilers were 47-32 (.595) last season — tied for 6th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Oilers are 125-96 (.566) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Oilers are 3-18 (.143) when trailing after the first period this season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .267
The Oilers are 89-7 (.927) when allowing 2 or fewer non-shootout goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .848
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning had 2.7 rush chances per game in the first period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning have 2.6 rush chances per game in the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning have scored on 30% of second chance opportunities on the power play since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 18%
The Lightning have 10.0 points per game this season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 8.3
Oilers Offensive Stats & Trends
The Oilers have 260.66 expected goals this season — most among NHL Teams
The Oilers have 840 cycle chances this season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Oilers have averaged 1.28 expected goals per game in the third period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.03
The Oilers recorded 34.0 shots per game last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 30.3
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning had a .667 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .832
The Lightning have allowed 0.8 goals per game while tied this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
The Lightning have allowed opponents to score on 7% of cycle chances in the second period since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
Oilers Defensive Stats & Trends
The Oilers have allowed opponents to score on 25% of second chance opportunities this season — 2nd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 15%
The Oilers have allowed opponents to score on 22% of second chance opportunities since the start of the 2023-24 season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 16%
The Oilers have allowed opponents to score on 22% of second chance opportunities since the start of the 2024-25 season — 2nd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 16%
The Oilers have allowed 6.0 rush chances per game in 5v5 situations this season — tied for highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 5.1
National Hockey League Betting at BetMGM
At the BetMGM online sportsbook, NHL betting is available throughout the year.
Hockey betting lines are posted for the latest Maple Leafs Stanley Cup odds, Oilers playoffs odds, live betting, and more.
BetMGM also has the odds for the betting favourites to win the Stanley Cup this year.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
