- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Maple Leafs
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals
- TV Channel: SPOT | CBC | RSNO | NHL
The Tampa Bay Lightning (38-18) visit Scotiabank Arena to take on the Toronto Maple Leafs (27-25) on Mar. 7 in Toronto, ON. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Over/Under is 6.5 total goals.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Lightning | -1.5 +125 | 6.5 -110 | -185 |
| Maple Leafs | +1.5 -155 | 6.5 -110 | +150 |
Lightning vs Maple Leafs Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 75.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Lightning vs Maple Leafs Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lightning will cover the spread with 70.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 away games (+11.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 13 of their last 25 games (+6.95 Units / 22% ROI)
Maple Leafs Best Bets & Trends
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the 1P Game Total Over in 13 of their last 15 games at home (+10.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have covered the 3P Puck Line in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+5.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the 3P Game Total Over in 14 of their last 25 games (+5.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+4.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have covered the 1P Puck Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 28% ROI)
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 30-30 against the spread this NHL season (+10.4 Units / 13.94% ROI).
- Lightning are 38-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.85 Units /5.16% ROI
- Lightning are 28-28 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -3.79% ROI
- Lightning are 28-28 when betting the Under for -2.65 Units /-4% ROI
Maple Leafs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Maple Leafs are 26-37 against the spread this NHL season (-18.15 Units /-18.95% ROI).
- Maple Leafs are 27-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.3 Units / -15.88% ROI
- Maple Leafs are 35-23 when betting the Over for +9.7 Units / 13.96% ROI
- Maple Leafs are 23-35 when betting the Under for -15.6 Units / -22.49% ROI
Points Per Game Predictions for Maple Leafs vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point (TB) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 1.5 +105 | 1.5 -140 |
| Victor Hedman (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -235 |
| Anthony Cirelli (TB) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Matthew Knies (TOR) | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Maple Leafs vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point (TB) | 2.5 +100 | 2.5 -140 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -165 |
| Yanni Gourde (TB) | 1.5 +115 | 1.5 -155 |
| Victor Hedman (TB) | 1.5 -135 | 1.5 -105 |
| Anthony Cirelli (TB) | 1.5 -125 | 1.5 -110 |
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Maple Leafs
The Lightning are 38-21 (.644) this season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 129-90 (.589) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 24-10 (.706) when allowing 35 or more shots on goal since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .462
Maple Leafs: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Maple Leafs were 50-29 (.633) last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs are 123-98 (.557) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs are 27-34 (.443) this season — tied for 8th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs are 77-63 (.550) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 8th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning averaged 0.6 high danger chances per game while shorthanded last season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Lightning had 2.7 rush chances per game in the first period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning have averaged 18.4 high danger chances per game since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 15.9
The Lightning had 5 cycle chances while shorthanded last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
Maple Leafs Offensive Stats & Trends
The Maple Leafs scored on 37% of second chance opportunities on the power play last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Maple Leafs have scored on 20% of rush chances in the third period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 12%
The Maple Leafs were 50-29 (.633) last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Maple Leafs have averaged 2.94 expected goals per game this season — 7th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 3.09
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning had a .667 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .832
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning have allowed 0.8 goals per game while tied this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
The Lightning have allowed opponents to score on 7% of cycle chances in the second period since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
Maple Leafs Defensive Stats & Trends
The Maple Leafs allowed opponents to score on 8% of cycle chances last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Maple Leafs have made 30.5 saves per game this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 26.9
The Maple Leafs have allowed 0.4 goals per game against the power play this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.6
The Maple Leafs have made 1,861 saves this season — most among NHL Teams
National Hockey League Betting at BetMGM
At the BetMGM online sportsbook, NHL betting is available throughout the year.
Hockey betting lines are posted for the latest Maple Leafs Stanley Cup odds, Oilers playoffs odds, live betting, and more.
BetMGM also has the odds for the betting favourites to win the Stanley Cup this year.
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