- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Kraken
- Lightning vs. Kraken Total (Over/Under): 6 goals
- TV Channel: TNT | HBOM | SPOT
The Tampa Bay Lightning (40-21) visit Climate Pledge Arena to take on the Seattle Kraken (31-26) on Mar. 17 in Seattle, WA. The puck drop is scheduled for 10:00 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Lightning vs. Kraken Over/Under is 6 total goals.
Lightning vs. Kraken Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Lightning | -1.5 +120 | 6 +100 | -200 |
| Kraken | +1.5 -145 | 6 -120 | +165 |
Lightning vs Kraken Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 90.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Lightning vs Kraken Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lightning will cover the spread with 80.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the Puck Line in 14 of their last 25 away games (+9.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 12 of their last 25 games (+5.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Kraken Best Bets & Trends
- The Seattle Kraken have hit the 1P Game Total Over in 20 of their last 25 games (+13.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Seattle Kraken have covered the 1P Puck Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Kraken have hit the 3P Moneyline in 12 of their last 25 games (+5.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Seattle Kraken have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+5.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Kraken have hit the 2P Moneyline in 9 of their last 20 games at home (+4.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 32-33 against the spread this NHL season (+9.7 Units / 12.19% ROI).
- Lightning are 40-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units /1.94% ROI
- Lightning are 31-30 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -2.24% ROI
- Lightning are 30-31 when betting the Under for -3.95 Units /-5.49% ROI
Kraken Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Kraken are 43-23 against the spread this NHL season (+9.55 Units /8.15% ROI).
- Kraken are 31-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 2.85% ROI
- Kraken are 25-34 when betting the Over for -11.9 Units / -16.4% ROI
- Kraken are 34-25 when betting the Under for +6.95 Units / 9.53% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Kraken vs Lightning
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | +100 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | +160 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | +180 |
| Brandon Hagel (TB) | +200 |
| Jordan Eberle (Sea) | +300 |
| Jared McCann (Sea) | +260 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Kraken vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Eberle (SEA) | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Brandon Montour (SEA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -210 |
| Gage Goncalves (TB) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Chandler Stephenson (SEA) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Shane Wright (SEA) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Kraken vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Eberle (SEA) | 1.5 -175 | 1.5 +130 |
| Brandon Montour (SEA) | 2.5 +125 | 2.5 -165 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 1.5 -190 | 1.5 +140 |
| Jared McCann (SEA) | 2.5 +145 | 2.5 -200 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -175 |
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Kraken
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 40-24 (.625) this season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 129-90 (.589) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 24-11 (.686) when allowing 35 or more shots on goal since the start of the 2024-25 season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .462
Kraken: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Kraken are 96-125 (.434) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 4th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Kraken were 34-46 (.425) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Kraken are 64-81 (.441) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 5th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Kraken are 38-61 (.384) when drawing more penalties since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .501
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have 2.6 rush chances per game in the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning primary assisted on 11 goals while shorthanded last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Lightning have scored on 30% of second chance opportunities on the power play since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 18%
The Lightning have scored on 26% of second chance opportunities while leading since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
Kraken Offensive Stats & Trends
The Kraken scored on 10% of second chance opportunities last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Kraken have 0.1 rush chances per game while shorthanded this season — tied for lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Kraken have averaged 0.1 high danger chances per game while shorthanded this season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Kraken have averaged 0.2 high danger chances per game while shorthanded since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have allowed 0.8 goals per game while tied this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
The Lightning had a .667 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .832
The Lightning had a .800 save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .893
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 10% of second chance opportunities last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
Kraken Defensive Stats & Trends
The Kraken have a .500 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded this season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .831
The Kraken allowed 1.2 goals per game in the first period last season — tied for highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.9
The Kraken have allowed 0.3 high danger chances per game while their opponent is shorthanded since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Kraken had a .795 slot save percentage in the first period last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .839
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