- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Jets
- Lightning vs. Jets Total (Over/Under): 6 goals
- TV Channel: SPOT | TSN3
The Tampa Bay Lightning (38-17) visit Canada Life Centre to take on the Winnipeg Jets (24-26) on Mar. 5 in Winnipeg, MB. The puck drop is scheduled for 8:00 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Lightning vs. Jets Over/Under is 6 total goals.
Lightning vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Lightning | -1.5 +125 | 6 -118 | -190 |
| Jets | +1.5 -155 | 6 -102 | +155 |
Lightning vs Jets Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 90.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Lightning vs Jets Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lightning will cover the spread with 74.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+13.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the Puck Line in 16 of their last 25 away games (+13.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 13 of their last 25 games (+6.95 Units / 22% ROI)
Jets Best Bets & Trends
- The Winnipeg Jets have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 13 of their last 25 games at home (+8.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Winnipeg Jets have hit the 3P Game Total Under in 9 of their last 20 games at home (+6.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Winnipeg Jets have hit the 1P Moneyline in 8 of their last 20 games (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Winnipeg Jets have covered the 1P Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Winnipeg Jets have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.60 Units / 38% ROI)
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 30-29 against the spread this NHL season (+11.4 Units / 15.49% ROI).
- Lightning are 38-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.8 Units /7.38% ROI
- Lightning are 28-27 when betting the Over for -1.45 Units / -2.24% ROI
- Lightning are 27-28 when betting the Under for -3.65 Units /-5.6% ROI
Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Jets are 28-32 against the spread this NHL season (-2.85 Units /-3.24% ROI).
- Jets are 24-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.4 Units / -25.7% ROI
- Jets are 32-27 when betting the Over for +3.05 Units / 4.63% ROI
- Jets are 27-32 when betting the Under for -7.8 Units / -11.76% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Jets vs Lightning
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | +140 |
| Kyle Connor (WIN) | +170 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | +175 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | +175 |
| Brandon Hagel (TB) | +180 |
| Mark Scheifele (WIN) | +200 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Jets vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Vilardi (WIN) | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Kyle Connor (WIN) | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -235 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 1.5 -110 | 1.5 -118 |
| Darren Raddysh (TB) | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Jets vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Vilardi (WIN) | 1.5 -155 | 1.5 +110 |
| Kyle Connor (WIN) | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -165 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 2.5 +135 | 2.5 -190 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -160 |
| Darren Raddysh (TB) | 2.5 -140 | 2.5 +100 |
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Jets
The Lightning are 38-21 (.644) this season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 31-18 (.633) when allowing 35 or more shots on goal since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .470
The Lightning are 129-90 (.589) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Jets: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Jets were 55-25 (.688) last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Jets are 24-36 (.400) this season — tied for 5th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Jets were 33-6 (.846) when outshooting their opponents last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .553
The Jets are 130-91 (.588) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning averaged 0.6 high danger chances per game while shorthanded last season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Lightning had 2.7 rush chances per game in the first period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning have scored on 30% of second chance opportunities on the power play since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 18%
The Lightning have 2.6 rush chances per game in the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
Jets Offensive Stats & Trends
The Jets have scored on 11% of cycle chances since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Jets have scored on 32% of cycle chances in overtime since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 13%
The Jets have scored on 39% of cycle chances in overtime since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 12%
The Jets primary assisted on 11 goals in overtime last season — tied for most among NHL Teams
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning had a .667 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .832
The Lightning have allowed opponents to score on 7% of cycle chances in the second period since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Lightning have allowed 0.8 goals per game while tied this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
The Lightning have allowed 9.2 high danger chances per game in 5v5 situations this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11.9
Jets Defensive Stats & Trends
The Jets allowed opponents to score on 7% of rush chances last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11%
The Jets have a .915 save percentage since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .900
The Jets have allowed opponents to score on 5% of rush chances in the second period since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11%
The Jets have allowed 5 second chance scoring opportunities while their opponent is shorthanded this season — most among NHL Teams
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