- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Canadiens
- Lightning vs. Canadiens Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals
- TV Channel: SPOT | RDS | TSN2
The Tampa Bay Lightning (48-24) visit Bell Centre to take on the Montreal Canadiens (46-22) on Apr. 9 in Montreal, QC. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+195).
The Lightning vs. Canadiens Over/Under is 6.5 total goals.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
Lightning vs Canadiens Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 52.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Lightning vs Canadiens Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lightning will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 away games (+8.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 3P Game Total Over in 14 of their last 25 games (+8.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 away games (+8.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+8.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 away games (+7.25 Units / 55% ROI)
Canadiens Best Bets & Trends
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.55 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the 2P Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+7.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have covered the 3P Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the 1P Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.85 Units / 84% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the 3P Game Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+5.85 Units / 38% ROI)
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 39-39 against the spread this NHL season (+12.9 Units / 13.71% ROI).
- Lightning are 48-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units /1.23% ROI
- Lightning are 39-34 when betting the Over for +1.95 Units / 2.27% ROI
- Lightning are 34-39 when betting the Under for -8.75 Units /-10.16% ROI
Canadiens Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Canadiens are 43-35 against the spread this NHL season (+9.45 Units /7.9% ROI).
- Canadiens are 46-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +12 Units / 12.64% ROI
- Canadiens are 44-32 when betting the Over for +8.1 Units / 9.28% ROI
- Canadiens are 32-44 when betting the Under for -16.05 Units / -18.77% ROI
Points Per Game Predictions for Canadiens vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Newhook (MTL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Noah Dobson (MTL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Nick Suzuki (MTL) | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Lane Hutson (MTL) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Canadiens vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Noah Dobson (MTL) | 1.5 -160 | 1.5 +120 |
| Nick Suzuki (MTL) | 2.5 +115 | 2.5 -155 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | 2.5 +135 | 2.5 -190 |
| Lane Hutson (MTL) | 1.5 +100 | 1.5 -135 |
| Cole Caufield (MTL) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -140 |
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Canadiens
The Lightning are 47-28 (.627) this season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 129-90 (.589) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 14-5 (.737) when tied after the first period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Canadiens: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Canadiens are 44-31 (.587) this season — tied for 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Canadiens are 102-119 (.462) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 8th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Canadiens are 6-3 (.667) when recording 35 or more shots on goal this season — tied for 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .522
The Canadiens are 83-72 (.535) since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 9th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning had 2.7 rush chances per game in the first period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning averaged 0.6 high danger chances per game while shorthanded last season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Lightning have 2.5 rush chances per game in the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning averaged 17.6 high danger chances per game last season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 15.0
Canadiens Offensive Stats & Trends
The Canadiens scored on 29% of second chance opportunities in the third period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Canadiens have 65 cycle chances in overtime since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among NHL Teams
The Canadiens have 9.3 points per game this season — 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 8.3
The Canadiens have 814 cycle chances this season — 7th most among NHL Teams
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning had a .667 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .832
The Lightning had a .800 save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .893
The Lightning have allowed opponents to score on 7% of cycle chances in the second period since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
Canadiens Defensive Stats & Trends
The Canadiens allowed 2.4 rush chances per game in the third period last season — tied for highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.9
The Canadiens have allowed 6 second chance scoring opportunities in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Canadiens have allowed opponents to score on 8% of rush chances this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11%
The Canadiens allowed opponents to score on 31% of rush chances in overtime last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 13%
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