- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Bruins
- Lightning vs. Bruins Total (Over/Under): 6 goals
- TV Channel: ABC | RSNW
The Tampa Bay Lightning (48-25) visit TD Garden to take on the Boston Bruins (43-26) on Apr. 11 in Boston, MA. The puck drop is scheduled for 12:30 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+200).
The Lightning vs. Bruins Over/Under is 6 total goals.
Lightning vs. Bruins Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
Lightning vs Bruins Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 56.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Lightning vs Bruins Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lightning will cover the spread with 54.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 3P Game Total Over in 13 of their last 25 games (+7.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 away games (+7.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 14 of their last 25 away games (+6.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 away games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 away games (+6.05 Units / 22% ROI)
Bruins Best Bets & Trends
- The Boston Bruins have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 25 games at home (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Boston Bruins have covered the 1P Puck Line in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Bruins have hit the 1P Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+10.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Bruins have covered the Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+10.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Bruins have covered the 3P Puck Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 39-40 against the spread this NHL season (+11.9 Units / 12.51% ROI).
- Lightning are 48-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units /0.31% ROI
- Lightning are 39-35 when betting the Over for +0.85 Units / 0.98% ROI
- Lightning are 35-39 when betting the Under for -7.75 Units /-8.88% ROI
Bruins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Bruins are 51-28 against the spread this NHL season (+21.9 Units /17.46% ROI).
- Bruins are 43-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +11 Units / 12.34% ROI
- Bruins are 43-35 when betting the Over for +4.45 Units / 5.08% ROI
- Bruins are 35-43 when betting the Under for -12.05 Units / -13.93% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Bruins vs Lightning
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | +130 |
| David Pastrnak (Bos) | +154 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | +154 |
| Brayden Point (TB) | +210 |
| Anthony Cirelli (TB) | +240 |
| Pavel Zacha (Bos) | +250 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Bruins vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie McAvoy (BOS) | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Elias Lindholm (BOS) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Pavel Zacha (BOS) | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Viktor Arvidsson (BOS) | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Morgan Geekie (BOS) | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Bruins vs Lightning
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie McAvoy (BOS) | 1.5 -135 | 1.5 +100 |
| Elias Lindholm (BOS) | 1.5 -150 | 1.5 +110 |
| Pavel Zacha (BOS) | 1.5 -118 | 1.5 -115 |
| Viktor Arvidsson (BOS) | 2.5 +105 | 2.5 -140 |
| Morgan Geekie (BOS) | 1.5 -200 | 1.5 +145 |
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Bruins
The Lightning are 93-62 (.600) since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning were 46-33 (.582) last season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 129-90 (.589) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 47-29 (.618) this season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Bruins: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Bruins were 32-48 (.400) last season — 4th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Bruins are winless (0-25) when allowing 4 or more non-shootout goals this season — tied for lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .132
The Bruins are 73-83 (.468) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 10th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Bruins were 1-32 (.030) when allowing 4 or more non-shootout goals last season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .135
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning primary assisted on 11 goals while shorthanded last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Lightning have 2.5 rush chances per game in the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning had 2.7 rush chances per game in the first period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Lightning have scored on 26% of second chance opportunities while leading since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
Bruins Offensive Stats & Trends
The Bruins have scored on 20% of second chance opportunities since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 16%
The Bruins have scored on 28% of second chance opportunities in the third period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 14%
The Bruins have scored on 22% of second chance opportunities this season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 15%
The Bruins have scored on 24% of second chance opportunities in the second period since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning had a .667 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .832
The Lightning had a .800 save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .893
The Lightning have allowed 1.73 expected goals per game in 5v5 situations this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.11
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
Bruins Defensive Stats & Trends
The Bruins allowed opponents to score on 21% of rush chances in the third period last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 13%
The Bruins had a .799 slot save percentage last season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .830
The Bruins have made 1.0 saves per game while their opponent is shorthanded since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.7
The Bruins have allowed opponents to score on 7% of cycle chances in 5v5 situations since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 9%
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