Jakub Dobes Conn Smythe Odds: Can Goalie Win Playoff MVP?

For the second time since Game 2 of the first round against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Jakub Dobeš finished with a sub-zero goals saved above expected. 

His -0.05 goals saved above expected in the Game 2 defeat to the Carolina Hurricanes marked just the fourth time these playoffs where Dobeš finished in the black.

Unsurprisingly, the Montreal Canadiens’ netminder saw his Conn Smythe Trophy odds at the  BetMGM online sportsbook decrease from +1100 to +1400. 

He’s still among the 10 favourites to join the select few rookie goalies who won the Conn Smythe.

Jakub Dobeš Conn Smythe Trophy Odds

Before the playoffs started, Dobeš’ odds to win the Conn Smythe were +15000. Those odds imply a 0.66% probability, which isn’t much more than the 0.2% chance of being born with an extra finger or toe. 

Despite losing Game 2 3-2 in overtime, Dobeš has been the far superior goaltender through two games of the Eastern Conference final. 

Frederik Andersen has struggled to find his rhythm, allowing seven goals on 33 shots. Andersen’s subpar 0.788 save percentage aligns with his -2.56 goals saved above expected. 

Dobeš, meanwhile, has 0.68 goals saved above expected and 0.907 save percentage through two games. 

Dobeš has 11.8 goals saved above expected, 3.1 more than Andersen. 4.4 ahead of Carter Hart, and 9.8 more than Scott Wedgewood. 

Why Can Dobeš Win the Conn Smythe Trophy?

Head coach Martin St. Louis, who improved to 8-2 in Game 7s in his career and 2-0 as a head coach, deserves a ton of credit for Dobeš’ precipitous ascendancy.

The composure St. Louis continually shows behind the bench has rubbed off on his rookie goaltender, who remains unfazed in any situation. 

Dobeš joined Ken Dryden as the only rookie netminders to secure multiple Game 7 wins on the road in a single playoffs.

He’s being compared to Dryden and Patrick Roy, Canadiens legends who make up half of the exclusive club of rookie goaltenders who won the Conn Smythe.

Despite losing Game 2 of the Eastern Conference final, Dobeš is gaining ground on Andersen, whose Conn Smythe Trophy odds decreased again. 

Dobeš Unfazed in Confronting Environments 

Dobeš is 7-3 in enemy rinks, sporting a 2.30 goals-against average and .920 save percentage. He’s 2-0 in elimination games, stopping 65 of 68 shots for a 0.956 save percentage. 

He won three of four in Buffalo against a Sabres team that had the fourth-best home points percentage during the regular season and ended the Hurricanes’ home playoff win streak at four games. 

While he won’t be happy with the Game 2 defeat at Lenovo Center, the Canadiens should be satisfied with securing a split with Games 2 and 4 in Montreal beckoning. 

Dobeš Trying to Join Exclusive Club With Canadiens Legends

Two of four rookie goalies who won the Conn Smythe Trophy played for the Canadiens. Dryden pulled off the improbable in 1971, with Patrick Roy following suit in 1986. 

Roy won the 1986 Stanley Cup with a .923 save percentage and 1.93 GAA, the former of which closely resembles Dobeš’ .918. 

Dobeš started 42 games and made the No. 1 role his in February, the same month Roy, who started in 43 games, surfaced as the likely No. 1 entering the 1986 playoffs. 

There are many differences in their rookie seasons, but those similarities are enough to offer fans a taste of what could be. 

Who Is the Conn Smythe Trophy Favourite? 

Nathan MacKinnon is the Conn Smythe Trophy odds favourite. 

When Was the Last Time a Goaltender Won the Conn Smythe Trophy? 

Andrei Vasilevskiy won the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2021, the last time a goalie won. 

Who Is the Youngest Conn Smythe Winner? 

Roy is the youngest Conn Smythe winner in NHL history.