- The Penguins are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Flyers
- Flyers vs. Penguins Total (Over/Under): 6 goals
- TV Channel: SNPT | NSPA
The Philadelphia Flyers (28-22) visit PPG Paints Arena to take on the Pittsburgh Penguins (31-17) on Mar. 7 in Pittsburgh, PA. The puck drop is scheduled for 5:30 pm.
The Penguins are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Flyers vs. Penguins Over/Under is 6 total goals.
Flyers vs. Penguins Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Flyers | +1.5 -210 | 6 -120 | +118 |
| Penguins | -1.5 +170 | 6 +100 | -145 |
Flyers vs Penguins Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Penguins will win this game with 64.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Flyers vs Penguins Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Flyers will cover the spread with 51.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Flyers Best Bets & Trends
- The Philadelphia Flyers have hit the Game Total Under in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Flyers have covered the 3P Puck Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Flyers have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Flyers have hit the 3P Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Flyers have hit the 1P Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.10 Units / 71% ROI)
Penguins Best Bets & Trends
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have covered the 1P Puck Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+14.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have covered the Puck Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the 1P Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+10.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 94% ROI)
Flyers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Flyers are 37-24 against the spread this NHL season (+6.45 Units / 6.38% ROI).
- Flyers are 28-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units /-2.51% ROI
- Flyers are 30-29 when betting the Over for -2.05 Units / -3.06% ROI
- Flyers are 29-30 when betting the Under for -4.8 Units /-7.11% ROI
Penguins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Penguins are 37-24 against the spread this NHL season (+13.7 Units /14.51% ROI).
- Penguins are 31-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 3.09% ROI
- Penguins are 29-30 when betting the Over for -3.95 Units / -5.89% ROI
- Penguins are 30-29 when betting the Under for -2.25 Units / -3.31% ROI
Points Per Game Predictions for Penguins vs Flyers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Kindel (PIT) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Kris Letang (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jamie Drysdale (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matvei Michkov (PHI) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Thomas Novak (PIT) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Penguins vs Flyers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Kindel (PIT) | 1.5 -190 | 1.5 +140 |
| Matvei Michkov (PHI) | 2.5 +130 | 2.5 -175 |
| Erik Karlsson (PIT) | 2.5 +130 | 2.5 -185 |
| Bryan Rust (PIT) | 2.5 +105 | 2.5 -140 |
| Christian Dvorak (PHI) | 1.5 -125 | 1.5 -105 |
Flyers: Keys to the Game vs. Penguins
The Flyers are 98-122 (.445) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Flyers were 33-46 (.418) last season — 6th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Flyers are 61-78 (.439) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 6th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Flyers are 61-44 (.581) when winning the xG advantage since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .671
Penguins: Keys to the Game vs. Flyers
The Penguins are 5-83 (.057) when scoring 2 or fewer non-shootout goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .152
The Penguins are 102-120 (.459) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Penguins are 12-25 (.324) when tied after the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Penguins were 33-48 (.407) last season — 5th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Flyers Offensive Stats & Trends
The Flyers have 8 forecheck chances in overtime since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among NHL Teams
The Flyers have secondary assisted on 14 goals while shorthanded since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among NHL Teams
The Flyers have 13 cycle chances while shorthanded since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among NHL Teams
The Flyers have scored on 10% of cycle chances this season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 9%
Penguins Offensive Stats & Trends
The Penguins have 16.4 slot shots per game this season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 14.0
The Penguins scored on 12% of second chance opportunities last season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Penguins have 11 second chance scoring opportunities in overtime since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among NHL Teams
The Penguins have 34 inner slot shots in overtime since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
Flyers Defensive Stats & Trends
The Flyers had a .768 slot save percentage in the second period last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .835
The Flyers have a .885 save percentage since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .900
The Flyers have a .805 slot save percentage since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .829
The Flyers allowed 7 forecheck chances in 4v4 situations last season — most among NHL Teams
Penguins Defensive Stats & Trends
The Penguins allowed opponents to score on 16% of rush chances last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11%
The Penguins allowed opponents to score on 16% of rush chances in 5v5 situations last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Penguins have allowed 0.5 rush chances per game while their opponent is shorthanded since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Penguins have made 1.0 saves per game while their opponent is shorthanded since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.7
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