- The Sabres are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Capitals
- Capitals vs. Sabres Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals
- TV Channel: MSGB | MMT2
The Washington Capitals (32-27) visit KeyBank Center to take on the Buffalo Sabres (40-19) on Mar. 12 in Buffalo, NY. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Sabres are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Capitals vs. Sabres Over/Under is 6.5 total goals.
Capitals vs. Sabres Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Capitals | +1.5 -135 | 6.5 +100 | +180 |
| Sabres | -1.5 +110 | 6.5 -120 | -220 |
Capitals vs Sabres Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Sabres will win this game with 79.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Capitals vs Sabres Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Capitals will cover the spread with 62.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Capitals Best Bets & Trends
- The Washington Capitals have covered the 1P Puck Line in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Capitals have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Washington Capitals have hit the 1P Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Capitals have hit the 1P Moneyline in 10 of their last 25 away games (+4.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Capitals have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 8 of their last 20 games (+2.95 Units / 13% ROI)
Sabres Best Bets & Trends
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the Puck Line in 19 of their last 25 games (+18.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the 1P Puck Line in 19 of their last 25 games (+16.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 25 games (+13.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the 2P Puck Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+11.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the 3P Puck Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 33% ROI)
Capitals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Capitals are 33-33 against the spread this NHL season (+6.6 Units / 7.42% ROI).
- Capitals are 32-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.85 Units /-12.42% ROI
- Capitals are 30-33 when betting the Over for -5.9 Units / -8.07% ROI
- Capitals are 33-30 when betting the Under for +0.45 Units /0.62% ROI
Sabres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Sabres are 39-26 against the spread this NHL season (+15.3 Units /15.53% ROI).
- Sabres are 40-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.2 Units / 22.51% ROI
- Sabres are 31-31 when betting the Over for -2.85 Units / -3.96% ROI
- Sabres are 31-31 when betting the Under for -3.05 Units / -4.26% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Sabres vs Capitals
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson (Buf) | +105 |
| Alex Tuch (BUF) | +165 |
| Alex Ovechkin (WAS) | +220 |
| Jason Zucker (BUF) | +240 |
| Josh Norris (BUF) | +250 |
| Josh Doan (BUF) | +250 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Sabres vs Capitals
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Owen Power (BUF) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Ryan Leonard (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Ryan McLeod (BUF) | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jason Zucker (BUF) | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -118 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois (WAS) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Sabres vs Capitals
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Aliaksei Protas (WAS) | 1.5 -150 | 1.5 +110 |
| Ryan Leonard (WAS) | 1.5 -200 | 1.5 +145 |
| Jason Zucker (BUF) | 1.5 -165 | 1.5 +125 |
| Anthony Beauvillier (WAS) | 1.5 -125 | 1.5 -105 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois (WAS) | 1.5 -130 | 1.5 -105 |
Capitals: Keys to the Game vs. Sabres
The Capitals were 50-31 (.617) last season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Capitals are 121-104 (.538) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Capitals are 82-65 (.558) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 7th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Capitals are 7-15 (.318) when tied after the first period this season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Sabres: Keys to the Game vs. Capitals
The Sabres were 34-45 (.430) last season — 9th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Sabres are 40-25 (.615) this season — 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Sabres were 2-28 (.067) when scoring 2 or fewer non-shootout goals last season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .144
The Sabres are 21-1 (.955) when leading after the first period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .729
Capitals Offensive Stats & Trends
The Capitals have 13 inner slot shots in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Capitals have 5.33 expected goals in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Capitals have 6 second chance scoring opportunities in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Capitals have scored on 21% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 16%
Sabres Offensive Stats & Trends
The Sabres have averaged 4.8 high danger chances per game while tied this season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 6.1
The Sabres had 19 cycle chances in 4v4 situations last season — most among NHL Teams
The Sabres had 0.3 points per game while shorthanded last season — tied for 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.2
The Sabres have drawn 18 penalties in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
Capitals Defensive Stats & Trends
The Capitals have allowed 4 second chance scoring opportunities while their opponent is shorthanded this season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Capitals have allowed 0.8 goals per game while tied this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
The Capitals allowed opponents to score on 8% of cycle chances last season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Capitals allowed opponents to score on 4% of cycle chances in the third period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 9%
Sabres Defensive Stats & Trends
The Sabres allowed 3.55 expected goals per game last season — 3rd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 3.14
The Sabres allowed 1.3 goals per game in the second period last season — tied for 2nd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
The Sabres allowed 1.3 goals per game in the third period last season — tied for 2nd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.1
The Sabres have allowed 0.1 goals per game while their opponent is shorthanded this season — tied for 2nd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.1
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