- The Capitals are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Penguins
- Capitals vs. Penguins Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals
- TV Channel: ABC | TVA
The Washington Capitals (40-30) visit PPG Paints Arena to take on the Pittsburgh Penguins (41-22) on Apr. 11 in Pittsburgh, PA. The puck drop is scheduled for 3:00 pm.
The Capitals are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+180).
The Capitals vs. Penguins Over/Under is 6.5 total goals.
Capitals vs. Penguins Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
Capitals vs Penguins Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Penguins will win this game with 60.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Capitals vs Penguins Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Capitals will cover the spread with 55.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Capitals Best Bets & Trends
- The Washington Capitals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Capitals have hit the 1P Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+5.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Washington Capitals have hit the 1P Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+5.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Capitals have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Washington Capitals have covered the Puck Line in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.35 Units / 15% ROI)
Penguins Best Bets & Trends
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have covered the 1P Puck Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+11.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the 1P Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+9.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 10 of their last 20 games (+5.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have covered the Puck Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.60 Units / 70% ROI)
Capitals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Capitals are 41-38 against the spread this NHL season (+9.6 Units / 8.77% ROI).
- Capitals are 40-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.05 Units /-6.91% ROI
- Capitals are 36-40 when betting the Over for -7.9 Units / -8.99% ROI
- Capitals are 40-36 when betting the Under for +1.1 Units /1.27% ROI
Penguins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Penguins are 47-32 against the spread this NHL season (+13.7 Units /11.27% ROI).
- Penguins are 41-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.25 Units / 5.64% ROI
- Penguins are 45-32 when betting the Over for +9.65 Units / 10.92% ROI
- Penguins are 32-45 when betting the Under for -16.9 Units / -19.48% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Penguins vs Capitals
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby (Pit) | +165 |
| Alex Ovechkin (WAS) | +170 |
| Rickard Rakell (Pit) | +195 |
| Bryan Rust (Pit) | +220 |
| Tom Wilson (WAS) | +240 |
| Yegor Chinakhov (PIT) | +240 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Penguins vs Capitals
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Novak (PIT) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Aliaksei Protas (WAS) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Cole Hutson (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -210 |
| Connor McMichael (WAS) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Erik Karlsson (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +150 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Penguins vs Capitals
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Kindel (PIT) | 1.5 -125 | 1.5 -110 |
| Thomas Novak (PIT) | 1.5 -118 | 1.5 -115 |
| Aliaksei Protas (WAS) | 1.5 -150 | 1.5 +110 |
| Cole Hutson (WAS) | 1.5 -120 | 1.5 -110 |
| Connor McMichael (WAS) | 1.5 -115 | 1.5 -118 |
Capitals: Keys to the Game vs. Penguins
The Capitals were 50-31 (.617) last season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Capitals are 121-104 (.538) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Capitals are 90-69 (.566) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 6th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Capitals were 10-5 (.667) when allowing 35 or more shots on goal last season — tied for 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .444
Penguins: Keys to the Game vs. Capitals
The Penguins are 5-83 (.057) when scoring 2 or fewer non-shootout goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .152
The Penguins are 102-120 (.459) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Penguins are winless (0-23) when scoring 2 or fewer non-shootout goals this season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .164
The Penguins were 5-18 (.217) when tied after the first period last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Capitals Offensive Stats & Trends
The Capitals have 5.76 expected goals in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Capitals have 6 second chance scoring opportunities in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Capitals have 14 inner slot shots in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Capitals have 8 second chance scoring opportunities in 4v4 situations since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
Penguins Offensive Stats & Trends
The Penguins have 8 second chance scoring opportunities in overtime this season — most among NHL Teams
The Penguins have 16.2 slot shots per game this season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 14.0
The Penguins have 2.9 rush chances per game in the second period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.3
The Penguins have 42 inner slot shots in overtime since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
Capitals Defensive Stats & Trends
The Capitals have allowed 0.8 goals per game while tied this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
The Capitals have a .714 slot save percentage in 4v4 situations since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .834
The Capitals allowed 0.8 goals per game in the third period last season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.1
The Capitals allowed opponents to score on 4% of cycle chances in the third period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 9%
Penguins Defensive Stats & Trends
The Penguins allowed opponents to score on 16% of rush chances last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11%
The Penguins allowed opponents to score on 16% of rush chances in 5v5 situations last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
The Penguins have allowed 0.6 high danger chances per game while their opponent is shorthanded since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.4
The Penguins have allowed 8 forecheck chances while their opponent is shorthanded since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among NHL Teams
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