- The Capitals are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Flyers
- Capitals vs. Flyers Total (Over/Under): 6 goals
- TV Channel: TNT | HBOM | MNMT | tru
The Washington Capitals (32-26) visit Xfinity Mobile Arena to take on the Philadelphia Flyers (29-23) on Mar. 11 in Philadelphia, PA. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 pm.
The Capitals are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+195).
The Capitals vs. Flyers Over/Under is 6 total goals.
Capitals vs. Flyers Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread (Puck line) | Total (O/U) | 2-Way Moneyline | |
| Capitals | -1.5 +195 | 6 -105 | -120 |
| Flyers | +1.5 -235 | 6 -115 | +100 |
Capitals vs Flyers Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Capitals will win this game with 59.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Capitals vs Flyers Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Capitals will cover the spread with 51.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Capitals Best Bets & Trends
- The Washington Capitals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Washington Capitals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Washington Capitals have hit the 1P Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.20 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Washington Capitals have covered the 2P Puck Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Capitals have covered the 1P Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 away games (+2.60 Units / 6% ROI)
Flyers Best Bets & Trends
- The Philadelphia Flyers have hit the 3P Game Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+9.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Flyers have covered the 3P Puck Line in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Flyers have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Flyers have hit the 3P Moneyline in 9 of their last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Flyers have covered the Puck Line in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+4.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Capitals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Capitals are 33-32 against the spread this NHL season (+7.6 Units / 8.64% ROI).
- Capitals are 32-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.5 Units /-11.05% ROI
- Capitals are 30-32 when betting the Over for -4.8 Units / -6.66% ROI
- Capitals are 32-30 when betting the Under for -0.55 Units /-0.77% ROI
Flyers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Flyers are 38-25 against the spread this NHL season (+6.45 Units /6.19% ROI).
- Flyers are 29-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -2.71% ROI
- Flyers are 32-29 when betting the Over for -0.05 Units / -0.07% ROI
- Flyers are 29-32 when betting the Under for -6.9 Units / -9.91% ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Flyers vs Capitals
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin (WAS) | +185 |
| Travis Konecny (Phi) | +195 |
| Trevor Zegras (PHI) | +225 |
| Tom Wilson (WAS) | +225 |
| Matvei Michkov (PHI) | +250 |
| Owen Tippett (Phi) | +250 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Flyers vs Capitals
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Sourdif (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jamie Drysdale (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Aliaksei Protas (WAS) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Matvei Michkov (PHI) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Connor McMichael (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Flyers vs Capitals
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Aliaksei Protas (WAS) | 1.5 -135 | 1.5 -105 |
| Matvei Michkov (PHI) | 2.5 +140 | 2.5 -200 |
| Connor McMichael (WAS) | 1.5 +105 | 1.5 -145 |
| Tom Wilson (WAS) | 1.5 -150 | 1.5 +110 |
| Ryan Leonard (WAS) | 1.5 -145 | 1.5 +105 |
Capitals: Keys to the Game vs. Flyers
The Capitals were 50-31 (.617) last season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Capitals are 82-64 (.562) since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 6th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Capitals are 121-104 (.538) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Capitals are 5-10 (.333) when tied after the second period this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Flyers: Keys to the Game vs. Capitals
The Flyers were 33-46 (.418) last season — 6th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Flyers are 98-122 (.445) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Flyers are 61-44 (.581) when winning the xG advantage since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .671
The Flyers were 14-24 (.368) when recording less than 30 shots on goal last season — 6th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .467
Capitals Offensive Stats & Trends
The Capitals have 6 second chance scoring opportunities in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Capitals have 5.24 expected goals in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Capitals have 13 inner slot shots in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Capitals have 6 second chance scoring opportunities in overtime this season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
Flyers Offensive Stats & Trends
The Flyers have 8 forecheck chances in overtime since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among NHL Teams
The Flyers have secondary assisted on 14 goals while shorthanded since the start of the 2023-24 season — most among NHL Teams
The Flyers had 28 slot shots in 4v4 situations last season — most among NHL Teams
The Flyers have scored on 0% of rush chances this month — tied for lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%
Capitals Defensive Stats & Trends
The Capitals allowed 0.8 goals per game in the third period last season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.1
The Capitals have allowed 4 second chance scoring opportunities while their opponent is shorthanded this season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Capitals have a .708 slot save percentage in 4v4 situations since the start of the 2024-25 season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .844
The Capitals have allowed 0.8 goals per game while tied this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
Flyers Defensive Stats & Trends
The Flyers had a .794 slot save percentage last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .830
The Flyers allowed 7 forecheck chances in 4v4 situations last season — most among NHL Teams
The Flyers have a .805 slot save percentage since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .829
The Flyers had a .878 save percentage last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .901
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