The Montreal Canadiens enter the playoffs as the best team down the stretch, with an 11-3-0 record since March 21.
The Canadiens won consecutive games against the Tampa Bay Lightning during that sizzling run, setting up one of the most highly anticipated first-round matchups.
Can the Habs harness the tsunami of momentum they’ve built up to upend the Lightning, who have the third-shortest Stanley Cup odds?
Canadiens vs. Lightning Odds, Spread, Over/Under
Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction: NHL Playoff Preview
The matchup between the fifth and sixth-best regular-season teams is another reason analysts and fans are keen on changing the NHL playoff format.
That’s a matter for a different day, so buckle up and get ready for what should be a sensational spectacle.
If I were predicting the outcome of this series on form, the Canadiens would be the hands-down winner.
Tied for the second-best points percentage with the Dallas Stars since Jan. 27 (.741), the Habs have picked up more momentum than a locomotive on a steep descent.
And while the Habs can win the Cup with the roster and tools at their disposal, I’m backing the more experienced and battle-tested Lightning to prevail.
Why the Lightning Will Win
The Canadiens don’t create nearly as many chances as their sixth-most goals per game (3.42) indicates. They rank 20th in expected goals and allowed the sixth-most.
With the sixth-best goals against above expected (-14.56), the Habs have been largely dependent on Jakub Dobeš’ stellar goaltending.
With only two playoff starts under his belt, I’m skeptical he can stand on his head throughout.
The Lightning are bursting at the seams with playoff experience, with most of the core intact from their consecutive Stanley Cups.
The Lightning ranked eighth in expected goals and allowed the fourth-fewest. On the rare occasion they concede a Grade A chance, they have former Conn Smythe goaltender and Hart Trophy odds front-runner Andrei Vasilevskiy to rely on.
Those factors should prove decisive against the upstart, comparatively inexperienced Canadiens.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Season Series
Both teams won two games, with the Habs taking the previous pair by a combined 6-2.
Canadiens and Lightning Season Stats
| Team | Goals For | Goals Against | Power Play % | Penalty Kill % | 1-Goal Game Record | Home Record | Away Record |
| Canadiens | 3.42 | 3.05 | 23.4 | 78.2 | 23-6-10 | 24-15-2 | 24-9-8 |
| Lightning | 3.51 | 2.78 | 21 | 82.7 | 15-10-6 | 26-13-1 | 24-12-5 |
Canadiens vs. Lightning: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not
Dobeš has been the best goaltender down the stretch, with a 10-3-0 since March 7. In that stretch, his .929 save percentage and 2.13 goals-against average (GAA) are among the NHL’s top three.
The 24-year-old allowed two goals or fewer in nine of those 13 starts.
While Vasilevskiy hasn’t been as good recently, he enjoyed another superb season and will likely win his second Vezina Trophy.
Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield ended the season on a high, with the former notching 36 points in 25 games since the Olympic break, tied for second with Connor McDavid, Martin Necas, and Nikita Kucherov.
Caufield had the most goals (19) in the same sample size, three ahead of Macklin Celebrini.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Best Bets
I have the Lightning to win in six games. The BetMGM online sportsbook has those hockey odds at +400.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
