- The Sabres are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Canadiens
- Canadiens vs. Sabres Total (Over/Under): 5.5 goals
- TV Channel: TNT | tru | HBOM | RSN
The Montreal Canadiens visit KeyBank Center to take on the Buffalo Sabres on May 6 in Buffalo, NY. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Sabres are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+185).
The Canadiens vs. Sabres Over/Under is 5.5 total goals.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
Canadiens vs Sabres Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Sabres will win this game with 69.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Canadiens vs Sabres Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Sabres will cover the spread with 63.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Canadiens Best Bets & Trends
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the 3P Game Total Under in 14 of their last 25 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the 1P Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have covered the 1P Puck Line in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Sabres Best Bets & Trends
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the Puck Line in 21 of their last 25 away games (+21.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the 3P Puck Line in 21 of their last 25 away games (+18.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 25 away games (+14.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have hit the 3P Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 away games (+12.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Buffalo Sabres have covered the 1P Puck Line in 17 of their last 25 away games (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Canadiens Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Canadiens are against the spread this NHL season ( Units / ROI).
- Canadiens are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
- Canadiens are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
- Canadiens are when betting the Under for Units / ROI
Sabres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Sabres are against the spread this NHL season ( Units / ROI).
- Sabres are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
- Sabres are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
- Sabres are when betting the Under for Units / ROI
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Sabres vs Canadiens
| Player Name | Odds to Score a Goal |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson (Buf) | +150 |
| Cole Caufield (MTL) | +170 |
| Alex Tuch (BUF) | +180 |
| Juraj Slafkovsky (MTL) | +200 |
| Nick Suzuki (MTL) | +200 |
| Jason Zucker (BUF) | +320 |
Points Per Game Predictions for Sabres vs Canadiens
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Owen Power (BUF) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ryan McLeod (BUF) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jason Zucker (BUF) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| Kirby Dach (MTL) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Josh Doan (BUF) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Sabres vs Canadiens
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Owen Power (BUF) | 1.5 +125 | 1.5 -175 |
| Jason Zucker (BUF) | 2.5 +125 | 2.5 -175 |
| Josh Doan (BUF) | 1.5 -165 | 1.5 +120 |
| Josh Anderson (MTL) | 1.5 +115 | 1.5 -160 |
| Zachary Bolduc (MTL) | 1.5 +120 | 1.5 -165 |
Canadiens: Keys to the Game vs. Sabres
The Canadiens are 46-33 (.582) this season — 6th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Canadiens are 102-119 (.462) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 8th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Canadiens are 38-24 (.613) when creating 5 or more rush chances this season — 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .539
The Canadiens are 26-13 (.667) when scoring a power play goal this season — 9th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .592
Sabres: Keys to the Game vs. Canadiens
The Sabres were 34-45 (.430) last season — 9th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Sabres are 47-32 (.595) this season — 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Sabres were 9-13 (.409) when tied after the first period last season — 7th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Sabres were 16-14 (.533) when winning the xG advantage last season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .694
Canadiens Offensive Stats & Trends
The Canadiens scored on 29% of second chance opportunities in the third period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Canadiens have 6 inner slot shots while shorthanded this month — most among NHL Teams
The Canadiens have 3.5 points per game while tied this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.7
The Canadiens have averaged 1.24 expected goals per game while tied this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.05
Sabres Offensive Stats & Trends
The Sabres had 5 forecheck chances in 4v4 situations last season — tied for most among NHL Teams
The Sabres had 0.3 points per game while shorthanded last season — tied for 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.2
The Sabres have 171 forecheck chances in the second period since the start of the 2024-25 season — most among NHL Teams
The Sabres had 19 cycle chances in 4v4 situations last season — most among NHL Teams
Canadiens Defensive Stats & Trends
The Canadiens have allowed 6 second chance scoring opportunities in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Canadiens have 9 successful stick checks in 4v4 situations this month — most among NHL Teams
The Canadiens allowed opponents to score on 31% of rush chances in overtime last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 13%
The Canadiens have allowed 0.05 expected goals per game while their opponent is shorthanded this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.08
Sabres Defensive Stats & Trends
The Sabres allowed 1.3 goals per game in the second period last season — tied for 2nd highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
The Sabres have a .667 slot save percentage in overtime this season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .805
The Sabres made 0.9 saves per game while their opponent is shorthanded last season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.7
The Sabres have a .704 save percentage in overtime since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .815
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