Canadiens Playoff Predictions: Most Likely First-Round Matchups

The Montreal Canadiens are in the middle of a tight Eastern Conference playoff race, but with a five-point cushion, they should be able to lock up a postseason berth for the second straight season.

The standings seem to shuffle every day in the Atlantic Division, but there’s already a pretty clear picture of who the Canadiens could face in the first round of the playoffs based on seeding.

Below, I’ll give my playoff predictions for the Canadiens’ three most likely first-round matchups.

Canadiens Playoff Predictions: Most Likely First-Round Matchups

Buffalo Sabres

The Habs currently sit in the first wild-card spot, but could easily slide into third place in the Atlantic as they’ve got two games in hand on the Detroit Red Wings.

If the Canadiens do manage to finish in a top-three position, they’ll most likely face the Buffalo Sabres in the first round.

Buffalo is Montreal’s easiest first-round matchup out of my three predictions, but the Sabres are no joke. Buffalo is 15-5-2 (32 points) since the calendar flipped to 2026 – the only team with more points over that span is the Carolina Hurricanes (15-4-3, 33 points).

The Habs have played the Sabres well this season, though, splitting the series at two wins apiece. The Canadiens also own the slightly superior offence and power play, which could help them earn their first series win since their Stanley Cup Final run in 2021.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning are currently leading the Atlantic Division, and if the Canadiens finish in the first wild-card spot, they’ll likely meet in the first round.

The Lightning have won both meetings against the Habs this season and have historically dominated Montreal, going 21-4-2 in their head-to-head games since 2017-18.

Tampa Bay also boasts the second-best defence in the NHL in terms of goals against per game, led by star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who’s having a fantastic rebound season.

The Lightning are undoubtedly a tough first-round matchup for any team, and the Canadiens would be sizable underdogs.

Carolina Hurricanes

If the Canadiens slide to the second wild-card position, they’ll face the top team in the Eastern Conference. Right now, that’s the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Habs won their only meeting so far this season by a score of 7-5, but like the Lightning, the Hurricanes have generally done very well versus the Canadiens. Carolina is 17-4-1 against Montreal in the regular season since the 2017-18 campaign.

Carolina really has no weaknesses, ranking fifth in goals for per game and seventh in goals against per game.

The Canadiens would be the underdogs in this series as well, but the Hurricanes do have a history of faltering in the playoffs.