- The Lightning are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Canadiens
- Canadiens vs. Lightning Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals
- TV Channel: SPOT | TSN2 | RDS
The Montreal Canadiens (42-21) visit Benchmark International Arena to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (46-21) on Mar. 31 in Tampa, FL. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Lightning are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Canadiens vs. Lightning Over/Under is 6.5 total goals.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
Canadiens vs Lightning Prediction:
The winning team model predicts the Lightning will win this game with 81.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.
Canadiens vs Lightning Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Canadiens will cover the spread with 64.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook
Canadiens Best Bets & Trends
- The Montreal Canadiens have covered the Puck Line in 19 of their last 25 away games (+14.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have covered the 3P Puck Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the 3P Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have covered the 2P Puck Line in their last 5 away games (+6.25 Units / 86% ROI)
- The Montreal Canadiens have hit the 2P Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 64% ROI)
Lightning Best Bets & Trends
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have covered the 2P Puck Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+9.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+8.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 2P Game Total Over in 13 of their last 25 games (+8.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have hit the 3P Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+7.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Canadiens Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Canadiens are 42-31 against the spread this NHL season (+12.55 Units / 11.03% ROI).
- Canadiens are 42-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.95 Units /10.26% ROI
- Canadiens are 42-29 when betting the Over for +9.5 Units / 11.63% ROI
- Canadiens are 29-42 when betting the Under for -16.95 Units /-21.19% ROI
Lightning Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Lightning are 37-36 against the spread this NHL season (+13.95 Units /15.83% ROI).
- Lightning are 46-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.4 Units / 2.86% ROI
- Lightning are 37-31 when betting the Over for +3.3 Units / 4.11% ROI
- Lightning are 31-37 when betting the Under for -9.65 Units / -11.94% ROI
Points Per Game Predictions for Lightning vs Canadiens
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point (TB) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 1.5 +100 | 1.5 -130 |
| Anthony Cirelli (TB) | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -118 |
| Oliver Kapanen (MTL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
Shots on Goal Predictions for Lightning vs Canadiens
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point (TB) | 2.5 +120 | 2.5 -160 |
| Nikita Kucherov (TB) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -140 |
| Anthony Cirelli (TB) | 1.5 -160 | 1.5 +115 |
| Oliver Kapanen (MTL) | 1.5 +105 | 1.5 -140 |
| Jake Guentzel (TB) | 2.5 -130 | 2.5 -105 |
Canadiens: Keys to the Game vs. Lightning
The Canadiens are 102-119 (.462) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 8th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Canadiens are 41-30 (.577) this season — 6th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Canadiens are 6-85 (.066) when allowing 4 or more non-shootout goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .130
The Canadiens are 27-11 (.711) when having 3 or more xG. this season — 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .602
Lightning: Keys to the Game vs. Canadiens
The Lightning are 45-26 (.634) this season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 31-18 (.633) when allowing 35 or more shots on goal since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .470
The Lightning are 129-90 (.589) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
The Lightning are 13-4 (.765) when tied after the first period this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500
Canadiens Offensive Stats & Trends
The Canadiens have 332 cycle chances while tied this season — most among NHL Teams
The Canadiens scored on 29% of second chance opportunities in the third period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Canadiens have 3.6 points per game while tied this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.8
The Canadiens have scored on 14% of second chance opportunities this season — 10th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 15%
Lightning Offensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning have scored on 26% of second chance opportunities while leading since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning had 5 cycle chances while shorthanded last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
The Lightning averaged 5.8 high danger chances per game in the first period last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 4.7
The Lightning primary assisted on 11 goals while shorthanded last season — 2nd most among NHL Teams
Canadiens Defensive Stats & Trends
The Canadiens have allowed 6 second chance scoring opportunities in 4v4 situations this season — most among NHL Teams
The Canadiens have allowed opponents to score on 8% of rush chances this season — 2nd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11%
The Canadiens have allowed 0.03 expected goals per game while their opponent is shorthanded this season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.08
The Canadiens allowed 2.4 rush chances per game in the third period last season — tied for highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.9
Lightning Defensive Stats & Trends
The Lightning had a .667 slot save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .832
The Lightning had a .800 save percentage while their opponent is shorthanded last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .893
The Lightning allowed opponents to score on 5% of second chance opportunities in 5v5 situations last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 17%
The Lightning have allowed 0.8 goals per game in the second period this season — tied for best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.0
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