Auston Matthews’ Hart Trophy Odds Improve Dramatically

The past two weeks have been extremely kind to Auston Matthews, with the Toronto Maple Leafs sniper catapulting from fourth favourite to front-runner in the 2023-24 Hart Trophy race. 

His rapid ascendancy is thanks to 10 goals in the last seven games, including back-to-back hat tricks against the Philadelphia Flyers and Anaheim Ducks. 

Auston Matthews’ Hart Trophy Odds Improve Dramatically 

On Feb. 15, Matthews’ NHL odds of +1200 were fourth best to win the Hart Trophy.

Less than two weeks later, he is the +180 Hart Trophy favourite, leapfrogging Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov on the odds leadership board. MacKinnon is the joint-favourite at +180.

Matthews’ torrid pace is thanks to a 21.3 shooting percentage, which is the best of his career. He hit 18.5% in the abbreviated 2020-21 season and 17.2% in the subsequent season when he scored a career-best 60 goals. Matthews has six game-winning goals, three behind leaders Sam Reinhart and Elias Pettersson. 

Sit back, relax, and watch all 51 Auston Matthews (@AM34) goals so far this season. 😌 pic.twitter.com/uHeYQMzYNV

— NHL (@NHL) February 22, 2024

Unsurprisingly, most of Matthews’ stats have improved in the past few weeks, including his plus-minus rating. He’s +21, tied for first with McDavid and David Pastrňák among the five Hart Trophy favourites, and is on pace to score 109 points, which would exceed his previous best of 106, obtained in 73 games of the 2021-22 season. 

Only McDavid (17 points) and teammate Mitch Marner, who has 15 points in the last seven games, have more points than Matthews’ 14 since Feb. 15. 

Those two are the primary factors the Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup Odds have shortened in recent days, going from +1400 (tied for 10th) to +1300 ( tied for eighth). 

The Maple Leafs’ sniper has scored 38 goals in the previous 36 games, 11 more than second-place MacKinnon. 

Matthews’ Season Similar to Mario Lemieux’s 1995-96 Campaign

Matthews’ season is so prolific that it resembles Mario Lemieux’s 1995-96 exploits. Thus far, Matthews has six hat tricks and 15 multi-goal games, equalling Lemieux’s output on both fronts. They both scored hat tricks in back-to-back contests. 

Matthews reached the 50-goal threshold in 54 games, the fastest since Lemieux accomplished the feat in 50 games during the 1995-96 season. Wayne Gretzky scored 50 goals in 39 games during the 1981-82 season, the fastest to 50 in NHL history. 

Lemieux scored 69 goals in 70 games during that storied season, a .99 goals-per-game return. Matthews is scoring at a .93 goals-per-game clip, only marginally off Lemieux’s pace. 

2024 NHL Hart Trophy Odds: Who Are the Favourites to Win MVP?

In recent days, MacKinnon was knocked off the perch as the favourite by Matthews only to regain parity as of Feb. 29.

Meanwhile, Kucherov (+250) and McDavid (+350) have seen their odds lengthen since Feb. 15. MacKinnon is the only one of the four who hasn’t previously won the Hart Trophy. 

Each player has the ability to go on a Matthews-esque hot streak. Nobody can suppress McDavid for long, and Kucherov is enjoying one of the best seasons of his storied career. 

Nikita Kucherov (37-63—100 in 59 GP) is the NHL’s first player to 100 points for the second time in his career (outright or tied), following 2018-19. He is one of only nine players in NHL history to achieve the feat multiple times.#NHLStats: https://t.co/V3npp39RHP pic.twitter.com/8aEbewLKw3

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) February 25, 2024

MacKinnon has 69 points in the last 38 games, the most of any player since Dec. 1, while McDavid has 65 points in three fewer games. 

Auston Matthews Goals: Career Best and How Many Will He Score in 2023-24?

The 26-year-old, barring anything catastrophic, will score 60 goals for the second time in his career. Only eight players in NHL history have recorded multiple 60-goal seasons, and nobody has done it since Lemieux. 

Matthews is on pace for 74 goals, which would rank eighth all-time. Alexander Mogilny and Teem Selanne were the last players to score 70. They both scored 76 in 1992-93.