Auston Matthews Contract Prediction for Extension

Auston Matthews made NHL history in 2023 when he signed a four-year contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs worth $53 million, making him the league’s highest-paid player at the time in terms of average annual value ($13.25 million).

The Maple Leafs captain still has two years remaining on his current contract, but he could be negotiating a new deal as soon as next summer.

How much will Matthews make on his next contract? I’ll provide my best prediction below.

How Much Will Auston Matthews Make on His Next Contract?

There are two main things to consider when predicting Matthews’ next contract: the growth of the NHL’s salary cap, as well as comparable contracts around the league.

Piecing those two factors together will help project how much the Leafs’ superstar could earn on his next deal.

What Will the NHL Salary Cap Be in 2028-29?

The league’s salary cap stands at $95.5 million for the 2025-26 season and is expected to rise exponentially over the next few years. According to early projections, the salary cap for the 2028-29 campaign, when Matthews would be due a new contract, could be as high as $123 million.

Matthews’ average annual value on his current deal took up just over 15% of the salary cap in 2024-25, the first year of his contract. If he asks for the same valuation on his next deal, he could make as much as $18.45 million per season.

Contract Comparables

It’s difficult to compare Matthews directly to other stars around the league for one main reason: He tends to sign shorter-term deals. Generally, NHL superstars opt for seven- or eight-year contracts, but the Maple Leafs captain has never signed a deal longer than five years.

Based on his past deals, we know that Matthews and his agent, Judd Moldaver, are willing to press for maximum value. That said, Matthews’ closest comparable is probably Kirill Kaprizov of the Minnesota Wild.

Kaprizov turned the league on its head last September when he inked the biggest contract in NHL history, an eight-year deal worth $136 million, or $17 million per season.

That contract accounted for 16.3% of the salary cap at the time of signing. If Matthews asks for that kind of dough, he’ll be right around $20 million per year in 2028-29.

Final Prediction

Ultimately, Kaprizov’s contract looks like a bit of an outlier in the NHL’s current landscape, where superstars such as Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon are signed for around $12.5 million per year. However, monster contracts like Kaprizov’s are bound to become normalized, given the league’s rapidly growing salary cap.

Knowing that Matthews prefers signing short-term deals to maximize his earning potential, I predict that he’ll ink a three-year contract worth $19 to $20 million per year in 2028-29. 

Whether that’s in Toronto or elsewhere is another question.