- UMBC became the first No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed in 2018.
- No. 8 Villanova in 1985 was the lowest-seeded team to win the national championship.
- Six double-digit-seeded teams have made the Final Four.
College basketball, specifically the NCAA Tournament, is unlike any other sport and event in that fans know that upsets are coming, but we’re not always sure where they’re coming from.
While betting on the basketball lines of teams like No. 1 Virginia in 2018 can feel like sure bets, we now know that even No. 1 seeds aren’t safe in the first round.
Parlays are common with so many games in the NCAA Tournament, but nothing kills them more than a massive March Madness upset.
Below, I’ll examine the seven biggest March Madness upsets of all time and more.
7 Biggest March Madness Upsets of All Time, Ranked
7. No. 2 Duke vs. No. 1 UNLV (1991)
A No. 2 over a No. 1 isn’t typically considered an upset, but the context of that 1991 tournament matters. That season, UNLV was 34-0 and hadn’t lost since Feb. 1990. Despite being a 9.5-point underdog, Duke beat them to advance to the national title game. They beat Kansas 72-65.
6. No. 15 Saint Peter’s vs. No. 2 Kentucky (2022)
In the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, the Saint Peter’s Peacocks got hot and beat Kentucky 85-79. They shot 52.9% from 3-point range. They made it to the Elite Eight, losing to North Carolina. Kentucky was an 18-point favourite.
5. No. 11 George Mason vs. No. 1 UConn (2006)
In the 2006 NCAA Tournament, George Mason went on an incredible run. It started with a win over No. 6 Michigan State, followed by wins over No. 3 North Carolina and No. 7 Wichita State.
In the Elite Eight, they played No. 1 UConn, went into overtime, and won 86-84.
The win came despite George Mason missing two free throws with six seconds to go and a 3-point shot from UConn’s Denham Brown failing to go in.
4. No. 11 VCU vs. No. 1 Kansas (2011)
No. 11 VCU defeated No. 1 Kansas in the Elite Eight in 2011, 71-61. They were the third No. 11 seed to ever advance to the Final Four. VCU was an 11-point underdog.
3. No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 1 Georgetown (1985)
In 1985, Villanova became—and through the 2024 season—the lowest-seeded team to win the national championship. A No. 8 seed, Villanova beat No. 1 Georgetown 66-64. This was also the last college basketball game without a shot clock. Georgetown was a 9.5-point favourite.
2. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson vs. No. 1 Purdue (2023)
With center Zach Edey on the roster, Purdue was a massive favourite to win the 2023 national title. However, Purdue played terribly, posting a 35.8% field goal percentage and shooting just 19.2% from 3-point range. Purdue was a 23.5-point favourite.
1. No. 16 UMBC vs. No. 1 Virginia (2018)
At the time, this was the first-ever No. 16 over No. 1 upset in NCAA Tournament history. Not only did UMBC win, but they crushed Virginia 74-54 as 20.5-point underdogs.
I can only imagine what the live odds were when they were tied at 21 at the end of the first half, only for Virginia to be outscored 53-33 in the second half.
What’s the Average Number of Upsets in March Madness?
The average number of upsets in March Madness is 12-13 under the definition of a lower-seeded team beating a higher-seeded team.
Has a No. 16 Seed Ever Beaten a No. 1 Seed?
There have only been two No. 16 seed upsets over a No. 1.
The first occurred in 2018, with No. 16 UMBC beating No. 1 Virginia. The other occurred in 2023, with No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson beating No. 1 Purdue.
Both games came in the first round of their respective tournaments.
Has a No. 15 Seed Ever Beaten a No. 2 Seed?
Yes, there have been 11 upsets, with a No. 15 beating a No. 2 squad.
| Year | No. 15 Team | No. 2 Team | Final Score |
| 2023 | Princeton | Arizona | 59-55 |
| 2022 | Saint Peter's | Kentucky | 85-79 |
| 2021 | Oral Roberts | Ohio State | 75-72 |
| 2016 | Middle Tennessee | Michigan State | 90-81 |
| 2013 | Florida Gulf Coast | Georgetown | 78-68 |
| 2012 | Norfolk State | Missouri | 86-84 |
| 2012 | Lehigh | Duke | 75-70 |
| 2001 | Hampton | Iowa State | 58-57 |
| 1997 | Coppin State | South Carolina | 78-65 |
| 1993 | Santa Clara | Arizona | 64-61 |
| 1991 | Richmond | Syracuse | 73-69 |
What Does a Cinderella Team Mean in March Madness?
A “Cinderella Team” in March Madness is one that thoroughly exceeds expectations.
I’d say it’s a double-digit-seeded team that wins multiple rounds.
A recent example is Saint Peter’s, a 2022 No. 15 seed that made it to the Elite Eight.
Has a Double-Digit Seed Ever Made the Final Four?
Yes, six teams with double-digit seeds have made the Final Four. The most recent was UCLA in 2021, which also played in a First Four game.
No double-digit seeded team has advanced beyond the Final Four.
What’s the Lowest-Seeded Team to Ever Win March Madness?
The lowest-seeded team to ever win March Madness was No. 8 Villanova in 1985.
