Raptors vs. Cavaliers Series Preview, Best Bets, & Predictions

The Toronto Raptors are in the NBA playoffs for the first time since 2021-22. Toronto’s reward for earning the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference is a best-of-seven series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. 

Raptors odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook have Toronto as clear underdogs for this series. 

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Game 1 Odds, Spread, Total, & Moneyline

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Series Prediction

I predict the Cavaliers will beat the Raptors 4-1 (+200). Toronto went 22-30 against teams with a winning record in the regular season. 

Cleveland’s net rating was only 1.2 better than Toronto’s, but the Cavaliers enter this postseason with a legitimate chance of going to the NBA Finals, as reflected in their basketball betting odds. 

Best Series Bets for Raptors vs. Cavaliers

Cleveland’s formidable 27-14 record at home suggests there’s a good chance the Cavaliers will take a 2-0 lead before the series heads to Toronto. Homecourt is a massive factor for the Raptors, so I think they will be very hard to beat in front of a raucous Scotiabank Arena crowd in Game 3. 

As a result, I predict the Cavaliers to win Games 1, 2, 4, and 5 (+650) and the Cavaliers to be up 2-1 after three games (-110). 

Toronto’s successes against Cleveland in the regular season don’t offer much of an insight for this series. A lot of basketball has been played since November. Cleveland has moved on from Darius Garland, with James Harden in his place, and the Cavs added further bench depth with Keon Ellis and Dennis Schröder.

Max Strus finally got healthy towards the end of the regular season, providing Kenny Atkinson with much-needed lineup flexibility. Cleveland has more rotational options than Toronto, whether mixing up the usage of its bigs or ensuring they have multiple shot creators on the floor at any time. 

In Donovan Mitchell, the Cavs have a proven playoff performer. Mitchell is +180 to score 25+ games in every game of this series — the Cavs are +8.1 per 100 possessions when Mitchell’s on the floor this season. The offence has been elite since the turn of the year, and the on-court fit with Mitchell and Harden (+4.9 net rating when on the court together) has been good. 

Harden’s playoff woes are well-publicised, but the former MVP has much less of a burden when he’s on a team with a player of Mitchell’s ilk.

Harden made two-plus 3-pointers in 21 of his final 23 regular-season games. He shot 43.6% from downtown on 7.2 attempts per game during that span. I predict Harden will hit more than two shots from beyond the arc in each game of this series (+200). 

For the Raptors, they are reliant on Brandon Ingram’s shot-making. Ingram should get some favourable matchups in this series, particularly if Evan Mobley spends most of his time on Scottie Barnes. 

The availability of Immanuel Quickley is a concern — Toronto’s starting guard suffered a hamstring injury in the final game of the regular season and was only able to complete an individual workout on Thursday.

The bench play of Jamal Shead and Sandro Mamukelashvili was a key factor in the Raptors’ three regular-season wins over Toronto. Cleveland’s bench has been strengthened with its trade deadline moves, but the bench minutes will still be key for the Raptors. 

Toronto needs to win the minutes when Mitchell is on the bench and must be aggressive offensively when Mobley is off the court. 

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Head-to-Head Record

Toronto swept Cleveland 3-0 in the regular season. All three games were played before the end of November, long before the Cavs acquired James Harden, and Donovan Mitchell played in only two of them. 

The Raptors’ bench completely outplayed Cleveland in those three games, but Cleveland has since significantly changed its rotation.

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Playoff Head-to-Head Record

Toronto has a 2-12 playoff record against Cleveland.

The Cavaliers swept the Raptors in their last two postseason meetings in 2017 and 2018. Toronto had no answer for LeBron James at the peak of his powers.