Raptors vs. Cavaliers Prediction, Odds, & Best Bets: Game 1 NBA Playoffs

The Toronto Raptors face the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 of their first-round NBA playoff series on Saturday.

Toronto is a clear basketball betting underdog at the BetMGM online sportsbook. This is the Raptors’ first playoff appearance since 2022, after finishing fifth in the Eastern Conference thanks to the fifth-ranked defence. 

Despite going 3-0 against the Cavs in the regular season, the Raptors’ odds price Toronto as a heavy underdog for this game. Cleveland has a markedly different rotation since these teams last met, with James Harden, Keon Ellis, and Dennis Schröder arriving via trade.

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Game 1 Odds, Spread, Total, & Moneyline

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Game 1 Prediction

I predict the Cavaliers will win Game 1 of this series. 

Toronto had an excellent regular season and impressed in its three games against Cleveland, but went an abysmal 2-22 against the top six in the Western Conference and the top three in the East. 

Cleveland is a much more complete team than the version the Raps faced in October and November. Harden, Ellis, and Schröder have strengthened this rotation, and the Cavs rank fifth in offence since the All-Star break. 

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Game 1 Best Bets

The Cavs had the second-worst against-the-spread record as a home favourite in the regular season. Toronto covered in 10 of 19 games as a road dog. I predict the Raptors will cover the spread in a Cleveland win, with the Cavs outplaying Toronto in the fourth quarter.

Cleveland had an elite clutch offence in the regular season. The Raptors were 22nd in clutch offensive rating, and only three teams posted a lower true shooting percentage in such minutes. Toronto too often stagnates in the halfcourt, which is going to become more of an issue if Immanuel Quickley is unavailable. 

I predict Brandon Ingram will score over 20.5 points on Saturday. Ingram is even more integral to the Raptors’ offence if Quickley is sidelined, so I expect the former New Orleans Pelican to take 18-plus shots. He went over this line in three of the final four regular-season games and scored 37 when he last faced the Cavaliers.

Jakob Poeltl has had under 7.5 rebounds in each of his last nine games. Toronto was cautious with Poeltl’s minutes down the stretch, and there’s a good chance he plays less than 22 minutes on Saturday. It’s not just about protecting the oft-injured big man. 

Sandro Mamukelashvili was a +28 in 57 regular-season minutes against the Cavaliers in 2025-26, and his shooting might make him a preferable option over Poeltl if the Raptors’ offence is too clunky in the halfcourt. 

There will also be periods when Mamukelashvili and Poeltl are on the court. Mamukelashvili has been a more consistent rebounder than Poeltl in recent weeks and could grab some boards that would usually end up in Poeltl’s hands. 

Raptors vs. Cavaliers Head-to-Head in 2025-26