The Toronto Raptors have a chance to get to the NBA playoffs for the first time since 2022.
Due to their success, the Raptors’ odds of winning games have consistently been favourable this season, but they’ll need to continue coming away with wins to avoid the play-in tournament.
With that said, let’s take a look at the Raptors’ scenarios to make or miss the playoffs.
Toronto Raptors Postseason & Play-In Tournament Outlook
The Toronto Raptors’ playoff seed is yet to be determined, but they appear headed to at least a play-in berth, though there is still plenty of time for them to clinch a top-six seed in the Eastern Conference.
Toronto would likely get to the playoffs on the backs of its defence, as the Raptors are a bottom-10 scoring team.
How Can Raptors Avoid Play-In Tournament?
The Raptors can avoid the play-in tournament by winning at least 10 more games to finish with a 47-35 record, which could be difficult for Toronto to achieve given its tough remaining schedule.
They’re also going to have to hope for the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat to lose a big portion of their remaining games.
Toronto has 17 regular-season games left on the season, including two against the No. 1-seed Detroit Pistons and one each against the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks.
The Raptors will also head out West for a five-game road trip, featuring matchups against the Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns, and Los Angeles Clippers, all teams that defend home court very well.
Toronto has one game remaining against Orlando and two against Miami, all at home. A win against each team would give the Raptors the tiebreaker over both squads if they finish with the same record as either or both.
By my count, at least eight winnable matchups remain on Toronto’s schedule, but it’s hard to expect them to win all of those games.
Considering that, I predict the Raptors will fall just short of avoiding the play-in tournament, especially with the Florida squads on fire.
How Would Raptors Make the Play-In Tournament?
The Raptors would make the play-in tournament by finishing with any record of 40-42 or greater.
The No. 11-seeded Milwaukee Bucks are more than five games out of the last play-in spot, so I don’t see Toronto slipping any further than the No. 10 spot.
Anything worse than a 46-36 record would likely keep the Raptors in the play-in tournament, as I don’t see Orlando or Miami finishing with a record any worse than that.
However, a 46-36 record should be sufficient to keep Toronto locked into the No. 7 spot heading into tournament play.
If the Raptors finish with the seventh- or eighth-best record in the East and win their first play-in game, they’d earn the No. 7 seed.
If Toronto finishes with the ninth- or 10th-best record, it would have to win two games, first against the other team in the 9–10 matchup, then against the loser of the 7–8 game, to earn the No. 8 seed.
Who Would Raptors Face in the Play-In Tournament?
The Raptors would likely face the Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers, or Charlotte Hornets in the play-in tournament.
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