What’s Wrong With the Blue Jays’ Offence?

Much of the Toronto Blue Jays’ struggles in 2026 can be attributed to an underachieving offence. Yes, injuries are partly responsible, but there are very few Toronto hitters living up to expectations. 

Given that the Jays were among the baseball betting favourites to win the World Series at the BetMGM online sportsbook heading into this season, their lineup has been a major problem. There’s no way they can compete unless the offence is more productive. 

What’s Happened to the Toronto Blue Jays’ Offence?

The Blue Jays were an elite offence in 2025, owning a 112 wRC+. In 2026, their wRC+ is down to 93, and they have been one of the least productive lineups in the sport.

This year, the Jays are 27th in xwOBA. They were fourth in 2025. 

Toronto has crumbled from one of the best offences in the sport to a lineup that’s only been marginally better than the lowly Colorado Rockies. 

What’s Changed for the Blue Jays Offensively? 

The decline in hard-hit and barrel rate immediately catches the eye. Both have cratered. That’s perhaps a symptom rather than a cause, however, as the Jays’ identity was never built on crushing the ball.

Toronto relentlessly put the ball in play in 2025 and prided itself on a low whiff rate. The chase rate has increased markedly, and the Jays have gone from seeing 50.3% of pitches in the zone to 47.1%. 

Hitters are being slightly more aggressive, but the key difference is that they are seeing more pitches outside the zone and are more likely to chase them when they do. Their contact rates on pitches inside and outside of the zone have barely changed. 

An increased strikeout rate and a decreased walk rate are primarily due to worse swing decisions and the contact-heavy approach being exposed after pitchers have had an offseason to adjust. 

How Can the Blue Jays’ Offence Be Fixed? 

Getting healthy would be a start. Alejandro Kirk’s return isn’t far off. 

Toronto also needs much, much more from George Springer (81 OPS+). Springer’s numbers have collapsed across the board, and he’s only in the 26th percentile in xwOBA. He’s one of the hitters seeing far fewer pitchers in the zone, and his chase rate has jumped almost seven percentage points.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 113 OPS+ counts as disappointing by his standards, but at least his underlying numbers are encouraging. It’s reasonable to expect Kazuma Okamoto to improve as he gets more experience against MLB pitching. 

There is no sure-fire fix when the issues are team-wide. The Jays simply need to adjust to how teams are pitching to them. Most of the lineup needs to be more selective – they’ve gone too far in pursuing contact that they’re making a lot of soft outs, and just putting the ball in play isn’t a winning strategy when they’ve only got two players inside the top 196 in sprint speed. 

Blue Jays Offensive Stats: 2025 vs. 2026