2024 Home Run Derby Odds & Predictions

The 2024 Home Run Derby features a star-studded field, including two-time winner Pete Alonso and AL MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson. 

The Texas Rangers’ Globe Life Field plays host to this year’s All-Star festivities, which ranks as the fourth-most hitter-friendly park for home-run hitting in the majors according to Baseball Savant.

2024 Home Run Derby Contestants

Pete Alonso – Mets

One of four players to win multiple Derbies, and with the most homers ever hit in the competition, Pete Alonso is going to be a popular choice among MLB predictions.

The Polar Bear is hungry for more.

Two-time #HRDerby champion Pete Alonso will be swinging for the fences in Arlington!

(MLB x @TMobile) pic.twitter.com/HfvI4QJRsw

— MLB (@MLB) July 8, 2024

The New York Mets first baseman is having a bit of a down year by his standards, though, with only 18 homers so far. Even with his history of success in the Home Run Derby, I would steer clear of Alonso at this price. He fell in the first round last season and was knocked out in the semis in 2022. 

Marcell Ozuna – Braves

With 27 expected home runs (second-most in the majors), it’s no surprise Marcell Ozuna is a best online sportsbook choice to win, in my opinion

Making his debut in the event, Ozuna has hit 64 homers since the start of the 2023 regular season. He ranks in the 98th percentile in barrel rate this season and represents a value pick at +375 to win the Derby final on Monday. 

Adolis Garcia – Rangers

Adolis García might have a 95 OPS+, but he’s still hit 17 homers this season. The raw power is there, even if he’s having a down year at the plate.

He was knocked out by Randy Arozarena in the first round in 2023. García hit the second-fewest homers in the first round last year, and he has a very challenging matchup in the first round against Gunnar Henderson. 

Gunnar Henderson – Orioles

I think Gunnar Henderson is one of the best baseball bets for Monday’s Home Run Derby. Ozuna is the only player in this field with more expected homers than Henderson so far this season. Henderson’s 28 home runs (entering July 12 action) rank third behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. 

His Baseball Savant page is a sea of red bars. The only factor working against Henderson is being a first-time competitor, but I like the value at +550 with how much hard contact he’s been making this year. 

Bobby Witt Jr. – Royals

At first, I was a bit surprised to see Bobby Witt Jr. get the nod for the Derby. His value is primarily in his contact, defence, and speed. He has, however, still hit 15 homers this season, even though he’s been a little unlucky.

Witt has 20.2 expected homers, which ranks 10th in the big leagues. He’s got a great barrel rate and solid exit velocity numbers. I like his chances against José Ramírez in the first round.

Teoscar Hernandez – Dodgers

A consistent power hitter, Teoscar Hernández is exactly the kind of player who could flourish in the Derby. He’s in the 92nd percentile in barrel rate and has the raw power to hit homers in the Derby without making perfect contact.

I think the Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder has a shot at upsetting Ozuna in the first round and could go all the way if he gets hot. 

Jose Ramirez – Guardians

José Ramírez is once again one of MLB’s best hitters. He has 23 homers but ranks in just the 61st percentile in barrel rate and the 59th percentile in average exit velocity. 

This is Ramírez’s second Derby appearance after losing to Juan Soto in the first round in 2022. He had the lowest score of any player in that round, and I would be surprised to see Ramírez make it into the semifinals on Monday night. 

Alec Bohm – Phillies

Three of Alec Bohm’s teammates have more homers than him this season. His 11 long balls are by far the fewest in this field, and he’s 123rd in expected homers behind Ty France, Jake Burger, and Colt Keith. 

I wouldn’t consider backing Bohm at this price. He’s an excellent hitter but he’s not blessed with massive power, and his barrel rate is just 8.5% this season. 

What Channel Is the Home Run Derby 2024 on in Canada?

TSN has broadcast rights to ESPN’s baseball coverage. ESPN will broadcast the 2024 Home Run Derby. 

Alternatively, MLB.tv will provide a live stream of the Derby through their website or app 

Clips of the Derby will also be posted throughout the event on social media via MLB’s official channels.