With just days remaining until Election Day, BetMGM Canada has conducted a social media analysis of Liberal and Conservative political candidates Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, following the shift in election betting odds since the French and English debates held on April 16 and 17.
The research examined each candidate’s current activity, follower growth, and engagement across major platforms, X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram, to offer a compelling real-time snapshot of how both are connecting with voters online.
Key 2025 Findings:
- Mark Carney continues to lead in overall engagement across X and Instagram, now reaching a combined engagement rate of 2.79%, more than triple Pierre Poilievre’s 0.89%.
- On Instagram alone, Carney’s follower count has soared by 750% since January 1st, marking one of the fastest growth trajectories for a Canadian political figure on the platform.
- Pierre Poilievre is the most followed on both X and Instagram with a combined following of 2.8 million.
Key Post-Debate Findings:
- Pierre Poilievre, while still holding the top spot for total Instagram followers, has seen 37% more new followers than Carney since the French-language debate, suggesting growing reach, but comparatively lower engagement.
- Debate moments continue to serve as key inflection points, with both leaders seeing noticeable spikes in followership during and after key events.
Methodology
To assess and compare the social media engagement of Canadian political figures Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, BetMGM Sportsbook Canada analyzed publicly available data across X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram, focusing on follower growth, engagement, and posting frequency.
Metrics Tracked:
- Current engagement rate on each platform (likes, comments, shares)
- Combined average engagement rate across platforms
- Monthly follower growth on Instagram in 2025
- Projected Instagram follower count by Election Day
- Total number of posts on X in 2025 (Jan 1–Apr 22)
Data Sources
- Engagement data (likes, comments, shares) was manually collected from public profiles on both platforms.
- Follower counts and growth trends were sourced from SocialBlade.com, a third-party analytics and forecasting platform that tracks historical and projected follower metrics.
Instagram Projections
Projected Instagram follower counts by Election Day were derived using SocialBlade’s growth forecasting tools, which estimate future follower totals based on current and historical trends.
Engagement Rate Formula
For X, the engagement rate was calculated as:
((Likes + Comments + Shares) ÷ (Total Posts × Follower Count)) × 100
This formula reflects the average engagement per post as a percentage of total followers.
Date Range
Due to limitations on X’s API access, data from January 1 to April 22, 2025, was manually scraped and analyzed by BetMGM’s research team.
Disclaimers:
- All data is based on publicly available information and subject to the accuracy and reporting delays of third-party sources.
- Engagement on social platforms can fluctuate significantly due to algorithmic changes, trending events, or content type.
- Forecasts from SocialBlade.com are estimates, not guarantees, and should be interpreted as directional indicators rather than precise predictions.
